The Number One Team in America Lost at Home. In Overtime.
Arizona started the season 23-0. The Wildcats were unanimous No. 1 in the AP poll, unbeaten at McKale Center, and rolling through the Big 12 with the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. Then February arrived.
On Saturday, No. 16 Texas Tech walked into Tucson as 9.5-point underdogs and walked out with a 78-75 overtime victory. It was Arizona’s second straight loss after Kansas had ended the 23-game win streak five days earlier. For bettors who backed the Red Raiders, the +400 moneyline returned four times their stake.
Saturday’s result capped a week that should feel familiar to anyone who follows contrarian betting patterns. The nation’s top teams keep stumbling in February, and the public keeps overvaluing them.
Toppin Dominated the Overtime
Texas Tech forward JT Toppin put together one of the best individual performances in college basketball this season: 31 points on 13-of-22 shooting, 13 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block. Eight of those points came in overtime, where the Red Raiders outscored Arizona by three after regulation ended tied at 66.
The game featured 11 lead changes and 11 ties. Arizona held a 64-57 lead with 3:29 left in regulation before Texas Tech ripped off a 9-0 run, capped by Donovan Atwell’s corner three-pointer with 25 seconds remaining. Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov hit two free throws to force overtime, but the Wildcats couldn’t contain Toppin in the extra period.
Compounding Arizona’s problems, star freshman Koa Peat left with a lower-body injury and didn’t return for the second half. Without his interior presence, Toppin found space to operate all afternoon.
Iowa State Demolished Kansas
The Texas Tech upset wasn’t even Saturday’s only ranked-on-ranked result. No. 5 Iowa State routed No. 9 Kansas 74-56 in Ames, snapping the Jayhawks’ eight-game winning streak. Kansas had been one of the hottest teams in the country after upsetting then-No. 1 Arizona 82-78 on February 9.
Iowa State led 37-27 at halftime, then opened the second half with a 20-7 run fueled by six consecutive three-pointers. Milan Momcilovic scored 18 points for the Cyclones while four other Iowa State players reached double figures. The Cyclones held Kansas to 31.6% shooting in the second half, including just 1-of-8 from three.
Kansas star freshman Darryn Peterson, who had missed the Arizona game with flu-like symptoms, returned but managed only 10 points in 24 minutes on 3-of-10 shooting.
A Week of Top-10 Carnage
Saturday’s upsets followed a brutal stretch for ranked teams across college basketball. On Wednesday, Portland, a 10-14 team ranked 230th in the NCAA’s NET ratings, beat No. 6 Gonzaga 87-80. The Pilots had lost 20 consecutive games to the Bulldogs. The same night, unranked Minnesota knocked off No. 10 Michigan State 76-73, and Oklahoma State upset No. 16 BYU 99-92.
By Friday, the bleeding continued. Wisconsin, a slight home underdog, demolished No. 10 Michigan State 92-71 at the Kohl Center. It was the Badgers’ second top-10 upset in four days, having beaten No. 8 Illinois 92-90 in overtime on Tuesday.
Add it up: in roughly one week, the No. 1, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, and No. 16 teams all lost to lower-ranked or unranked opponents. Michigan State fell twice.
Why This Matters for Bettors
The pattern playing out in February college basketball mirrors what contrarian bettors see across every sport. Public money gravitates toward top-ranked teams. When Arizona is 23-0 and laying 9.5 points at home, casual bettors pile on. The line reflects that public sentiment.
But February is where the cracks show. Fatigue builds. Conference opponents get a second look at schemes. Injuries hit at the worst time. Peat’s absence Saturday is a perfect example. Teams that looked invincible in November start looking mortal, and the market is slow to adjust.
Wisconsin has become the ultimate example. The Badgers weren’t even projected as a tournament team in early January. Now they’ve beaten Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State, three of the Big Ten’s best, in a span of weeks. As behavioral research suggests, bettors struggle to update their mental models when a team’s trajectory changes mid-season.
The Big 12 Race Is Wide Open
The standings tell a remarkable story. After Saturday’s results, three teams sit at 9-3 in Big 12 play: Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Houston leads at 11-1, and Arizona — despite two straight losses — remains at 10-2. Five teams within two games of the top.
For anyone eyeing March Madness futures or conference tournament bets, this level of parity creates opportunity. The public still views Arizona as the clear No. 1. The market hasn’t fully absorbed what two straight losses — one at home in overtime to a team that was a near-double-digit underdog — means for the Wildcats’ pricing going forward.
What Comes Next
Arizona hosts BYU on Wednesday, a team that’s lost four straight. Easy bounce-back game on paper, but BYU has nothing to lose. Kansas visits Oklahoma State, fresh off its own ranked upset earlier in the week. Iowa State hosts No. 3 Houston on Monday in what could be the game of the week.
February college basketball has a way of revealing which teams are built for March and which were riding unsustainable streaks. Arizona’s 23-0 start was impressive. The 0-2 stretch that followed may be more informative. For underdog bettors tracking historical data, this is the time of year when value emerges in plain sight.