Howard Checks the Box
The 2026 NCAA Tournament opened Tuesday night in Dayton, and the very first game delivered exactly what the consensus said wouldn’t happen this March: an underdog win.
Howard beat UMBC 86-83 as a 1.5-point underdog in the First Four, capturing the first NCAA Tournament victory in program history. The Bison entered 0-4 all-time in March Madness. They left Dayton 1-4 and headed to Buffalo to face No. 1 seed Michigan on Thursday.
For contrarian bettors, the timing matters. ESPN’s Giant Killer model gave no double-digit seed in this year’s bracket even a 40% chance of winning in the first round. Last year, four matchups cleared that threshold. The prevailing narrative heading into the tournament is that this could be the chalkiest March Madness in recent memory. Howard apparently didn’t get the memo.
How the Bison Won
Ose Okojie scored a career-high 23 points, with 16 coming in the first half. Bryce Harris, the MEAC Player of the Year, added 19 points and 14 rebounds. Cedric Taylor III contributed 16 points on 9-of-10 free throw shooting before fouling out late.
Howard led for all but the first 81 seconds. A 12-0 run in the first half stretched the advantage to 13, and the Bison took a 49-41 lead into halftime. Harris hit a 3-pointer early in the second half to push the lead to 61-48.
Then UMBC did what tournament teams do: they fought back. The Retrievers, riding a program-record 12-game winning streak into Dayton, chipped away at the deficit throughout the second half. DJ Armstrong Jr.’s 3-pointer with 43 seconds left cut Howard’s lead to 83-81.
Harris answered. With the shot clock expiring, he sank a turnaround jumper with 13 seconds remaining to push the lead back to four. Jah’Likai King’s layup made it 85-83. Isaiah Brown hit one of two free throws, and Armstrong’s 3-point attempt at the buzzer missed. Howard had its moment.
The Contrarian Context
UMBC entered as a 1.5-point favorite, and the public had reason to lean that way. The Retrievers carried that 12-game streak and the nostalgic pull of their 2018 upset of Virginia, the most famous 16-over-1 result in tournament history. Howard, meanwhile, was 0-4 in the tournament and making its fifth overall appearance.
This is a familiar pattern for anyone who follows contrarian betting philosophy. The public gravitates toward narratives. UMBC had the better story entering Tuesday. Howard had the better team on the floor.
The Bison’s season-long ATS record reinforced that disconnect. Howard covered consistently throughout 2025-26, winning its conference tournament and entering Dayton on an eight-game winning streak of its own. The betting market adjusted the line down from UMBC’s opening number, a sign that sharp money recognized Howard’s value before tipoff.
Coach Kenneth Blakeney, who has built Howard into a perennial MEAC contender with tournament appearances in 2023, 2024, and now 2026, framed the win simply. He told his team before the game they had a box to check. They checked it.
Texas Survives, Barely
The nightcap was even tighter. Texas beat NC State 68-66 on a Tramon Mark jumper with 1.1 seconds remaining. Texas was a 1.5-point favorite and covered, but the Longhorns nearly collapsed after building a late four-point lead. Mark had put Texas up four with 37 seconds left, but NC State’s Darrion Williams hit a 3-pointer, Tre Holloman earned a trip to the line, and a Texas turnover gave the Wolfpack a chance to tie.
Mark bailed out his team with the game-winner. Texas advances to face No. 6 BYU and AJ Dybantsa on Thursday.
What It Means for Thursday
Two games, two results decided in the final seconds. The First Four is a small sample, but the pattern is worth noting. Both contests went down to the wire in a tournament that oddsmakers and analysts broadly expect to favor chalk.
Howard now faces Michigan, a 31.5-point favorite. That spread is massive, and the Bison would need a miracle of 2018 UMBC-Virginia proportions to pull it off. But the broader lesson from Tuesday applies across the bracket: when everyone agrees the underdogs can’t win, that’s historically when a few of them do.
Thursday brings 16 first-round games. The public will be loading up on favorites. The data suggests at least a few of those favorites will fall short.