The Las Vegas book Circa Sports opened Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite over Houston and the number was down to 8.5 by Sunday afternoon, which the betting news site VegasInsider read as early money on the underdog. By Friday night the Houston Texas Tech odds sat at 7.5 at most books. Houston lost 28-26 and covered by 5.5.
The Cougars had a chance to tie it. Conner Weigman threw a 10-yard touchdown with 49 seconds left, then kept the ball on the two-point try and came up short, his knee down before the ball crossed the line, according to the Associated Press. Weigman finished 27-of-38 for 282 yards, and Will Hammond went 17-of-27 for 257 and a score for the Red Raiders, who had trailed 10-0 early in their first Friday home game since 1941.
The Market Gave Houston 2.5 Points and Needed to Give More
A 2.5-point move over five days is a real adjustment in college football, and the direction was right. It also was not close to enough. The final margin landed 5.5 points past the closing number, and Houston was a failed conversion away from winning outright.
Texas Tech has now failed to cover in all three of its games. Yahoo Sports counted the Red Raiders 0-for-2 against the spread going into Friday, after a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian as a 42.5-point favorite and a 35-24 win over Oregon State. Three straight misses at three very different numbers suggests the market is pricing this team off last season rather than this one.
The total went the other way, gently. CBS Sports and Athlon Sports both listed it at 52.5, and the game produced 54.
Miami Moved Toward the Favorite and Missed Anyway
The other Friday game ran the opposite experiment. Bookmakers Review had Miami opening near 19.5 and drifting to 20.5, so this market moved toward the favorite. Miami won 33-20, and Wake Forest covered by 7.5.
The total in that game moved much harder. CBS Sports had it at 55.5 by kickoff, five points above its open, after Miami outscored Stanford and Florida A&M 122-13. The teams combined for 53. Darian Mensah completed his first 24 passes for an Atlantic Coast Conference record and Miami still finished under a number the market had spent the week raising. Miami came in 2-0 against the spread and Wake Forest 0-2, per FanDuel and Bookmakers Review. Friday made it 2-1 and 1-2.
Three Games, Three Different Errors
Thursday night gave us the same lesson from the other side. As we wrote yesterday, Buffalo moved from 3 to 5.5 against Detroit and won by 10, which put the result 4.5 points past the close, while that total climbed three points and the game beat it by 17.5.
Put the three side by side. Texas Tech’s number moved toward Houston, and the underdog beat it by 5.5. At Wake Forest the drift went the other way, toward Miami, and the underdog beat that one by 7.5. Buffalo’s number also moved toward the favorite, and this time the favorite beat it by 4.5. Direction told you nothing.
That is the point of our line movement value page. A moved number records a changed price, and reading it as a forecast of the final margin is a separate claim these three games do no favors for.
What Would Undercut This
Three games prove nothing, and the framing is a little unfair to the market. A spread is the number that splits the action, so results scatter around it by design. Landing four to eight points off a closing number is ordinary football, and a season of games clustered that way would say the prices are fine.
The Houston Texas Tech odds are also a simpler story than the general claim. A team that has missed three numbers in a row against opponents ranging from an FCS-level walkover to a ranked conference rival may just be overvalued, which the market will fix by moving its number down. That is different from the market being systematically slow.
Houston Texas Tech Odds Were the Undercard
Saturday’s headline is LSU at Ole Miss. Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable told VegasInsider it is the most heavily bet game on the slate, with LSU money pushing the road favorite to 3 and the total up to 59.5 from a 58.5 open. Lane Kiffin goes back to Oxford at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
We’ll record where that one closes, along with the seven NFL numbers and Carolina at Atlanta, and publish the results tomorrow whichever way they go. Our closing line value page explains why the close is the only number worth grading against.