The Public’s Biggest Bet Shot 76
Bryson DeChambeau entered the 2026 Masters as the largest liability at BetMGM. The public loaded up on him at +1000, and the sportsbook’s exposure was bigger on DeChambeau than any other golfer in the field. He shot a first-round 76, nine strokes behind the leaders, after hitting just eight greens in regulation and carding a triple bogey. “Everything is hooking,” he said walking up the 18th hole. His immediate priority shifts from winning the green jacket to making the cut.
Defending champion Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns share the lead at 5-under 67. Patrick Reed, the 2018 champion, opened birdie-eagle and added another eagle at the 8th to turn in 31 before finishing at 3-under 69. Jason Day posted a 69. Scottie Scheffler, the +550 favorite, eagled the 2nd hole and birdied the 3rd, then made zero birdies over his final 15 holes to finish at 2-under 70, three shots back.
For contrarian bettors, Round 1 at Augusta delivered a familiar lesson: public money and tournament outcomes don’t always travel together.
Why the Masters Rewards Longshots
Golf is the sport where contrarian betting produces the most dramatic results, and the Masters is the tournament that proves it. In the last 20 years, five Masters champions arrived at Augusta with pre-tournament odds greater than 80/1, according to Golf Digest. Danny Willett. Charl Schwartzel. Angel Cabrera. Trevor Immelman. Zach Johnson. None were public favorites. All wore the green jacket.
Last year’s tournament offered an even sharper example. Justin Rose, at 125/1 pre-tournament, forced a playoff against McIlroy before falling short. Two years before that, Phil Mickelson was 500/1 before his runner-up finish. The Masters rewards course knowledge, experience under pressure, and ball-striking precision more than it rewards public perception. Augusta National is one of the most predictive courses on the PGA Tour, meaning the players who perform well here tend to do so repeatedly, regardless of where the betting market ranks them.
Rose, at 2-under after Round 1, is in contention again. He’s now finished in the first-round top 10 at the Masters nine times in his career, a feat matched only by Jack Nicklaus, Byron Nelson, and Phil Mickelson. Reed, who hasn’t contended in a major since his 2023 PGA Championship win, opened with the best front nine of the day. These aren’t the names the public backed this week.
Scheffler’s Slow Start Is a Pattern
Scheffler’s 70 looks fine on the surface. He’s three back with 54 holes to play. But the details are concerning for anyone who laid a futures bet at +550. After that fast start with an eagle and a birdie on his first three holes, Scheffler made zero birdies over his final 15 holes. Thursday marked his sixth opening-round score of 70 or higher in his last six PGA Tour starts. The two-time Masters champion is capable of lighting up Augusta on any given day, but his early-season form has been pedestrian by his own standards, and the course was playing receptive enough for seven players to finish at 3-under or better.
The public still views Scheffler as the overwhelming favorite. The market still has him shorter than anyone else. But through 18 holes, he looks like a player trying to find something rather than a player who’s found it.
Where the Contrarian Value Sits After Round 1
The Masters is a four-day event, and first-round positions shift dramatically. But the contrarian takeaway from Thursday is straightforward: the two golfers who attracted the most public money, Scheffler and DeChambeau, are a combined 12 strokes behind the leaders through one round. The leaderboard is topped by a defending champion who missed five fairways and still shot 67, a player (Burns) with no major wins, and a collection of experienced Augusta performers who weren’t on the public’s radar this week.
Golf’s inherent variance means any of the top 20 can still win. Scheffler has rallied from worse positions to claim green jackets. But for bettors who took the public side entering the week, Round 1 was a reminder that Augusta has its own ideas about who belongs at the top of the leaderboard. The course doesn’t care who the public backed.
Round 2 tees off Friday afternoon. The cut comes Saturday morning. And somewhere in the middle of the pack, a double-digit longshot is getting ready to make a move. At Augusta, longshots making noise is tradition, not an upset.