The Knicks and Spurs both leave home as favorites Sunday, hoping to close out or extend their conference semifinal series. New York lines up at -1.5 in Philadelphia, one win from the East Finals after building a 3-0 lead. San Antonio sits at -4.5 in Minneapolis, looking to push the Wolves into a 3-1 hole. NBA Game 4 Sunday delivers two road favorites with home dogs that have real reasons to fight, and lines that suggest the market expects close games rather than blowouts.
76ers Stare Down the Math No NBA Team Has Solved
Philadelphia is in a position no franchise has escaped. NBA teams down 0-3 in a best-of-seven playoff series have never won. Only four have even forced a Game 7 from that hole, and none of them won it: the 1951 Knicks, 1994 Nuggets, 2003 Trail Blazers, and 2023 Celtics. That last one was Boston, on the wrong side of a Heat sweep that fell one win short of completion.
The Sixers know the territory better than most. Just last week, they were the team digging out of an unwinnable spot, rallying from 3-1 down to beat Boston in seven games and producing what’s been called the worst series defeat in Celtics franchise history. The 2026 first round actually produced two such comebacks. Detroit also came back from 3-1 against Orlando, marking the first time in NBA history that two teams overcame a 3-1 deficit in the same round.
History rhymes a little here. Philadelphia just authored one of those rare comebacks. Now they need a more demanding one, and from a deeper hole. The contrarian read centers on Game 4 dynamics rather than the series outcome. A team with recent comeback muscle memory, playing at home in front of a desperate crowd against a road favorite laying just 1.5 points, has historically tended to cover. For more on why home dogs in must-win spots draw contrarian interest, see our underdog betting philosophy.
Brunson, Closeouts, and a Tight 1.5-Point Line
The Knicks have won six straight playoff games. Jalen Brunson scored 33 with nine assists in Friday’s 108-94 Game 3 win, his 24th 30-point playoff outing as a Knick. Mikal Bridges added 23 on 8-for-14 shooting. New York shot 13-for-22 (59%) on late-shot-clock attempts, the type of possession that usually produces the lowest field goal percentage in basketball. That’s where Brunson and Bridges have made their living all postseason.
Brunson’s road closeout history adds another layer. He’s averaged 29 points in six road closeout games since joining New York, hitting 30 in three of them, including a 41-point night against this same Sixers team in 2024. None of that is priced cheaply.
The line tells a competing story, though. New York is laying just 1.5 points on the road. With Joel Embiid back from his ankle and hip injuries and putting up 18 points in 35 minutes Friday, with the natural pull of a desperate home crowd, and with Tyrese Maxey adding 17, the market hasn’t priced this as a coronation. Philadelphia is 16-30 straight up as an underdog this season, but 5-1 ATS over their last six games. They blew a 12-point lead in Game 3. Recent muscle memory of a comeback gives them belief; the historical precedent for an 0-3 escape gives them nothing.
Wembanyama Has Made the West Semis His
Out west, Game 4 looks different. The Spurs took control of the series Friday with a 115-108 win in Minneapolis, with Victor Wembanyama putting up 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks. He joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Shaquille O’Neal as the only players in NBA history to record at least 35 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks in a playoff game.
The Wolves are no easier mark than they were a week ago. They stole Game 1 in San Antonio 104-102 when Julian Champagnie missed a buzzer-beater. Anthony Edwards, playing through injury, dropped 32 points in Game 3. Jaden McDaniels has been locking down De’Aaron Fox. McDaniels and Julius Randle combined to shoot 8-for-34 in Game 3, an unsustainable cold stretch from a team that scored 104 in Game 1.
San Antonio is laying 4.5 points with a 218.5 total per ESPN’s odds page. Minnesota is 7-4 ATS as a home dog by 4.5 or more this season. The Wolves’ bigger problem may be Wembanyama’s minutes load. The Spurs were +16 during his 36 minutes Friday and -9 the 12 he rested. That math holds for Game 4 unless someone else steps up, which is a thin assumption against a Spurs roster getting peak Wemby. Public money tends to chase the dominant individual performance, and that has been Wembanyama. Our look at public betting trends covers what happens when the public keeps backing one side after a star eruption.
Two Lines With a Story
Both Sunday games have road favorites and home dogs with reasons to fight. That setup tends to produce competitive games rather than blowouts. The Knicks have looked ready to sweep, but the line says coin flip plus a margin. The Spurs have looked like the better team, but Minnesota covers home dogs at a high rate when getting 4.5 or more.
Variance still rules in single games. Brunson could erupt for 40 and end the series. Wembanyama could put up another historic stat line. The case for fading both road favorites is far from a guarantee, and bettors who lived through the Friday slate know how quickly an apparent edge can disappear. Still, contrarian betting focuses on taking sides where the market has overcorrected, not on predicting any single outcome. A Game 4 Sunday slate with two tight road-favorite lines gives bettors two of those setups in the same afternoon and evening. For background on why fading public sentiment matters in playoff spots like this, see our breakdown on fading the public.