Four Double-Digit Upsets in One Day
Thursday’s Round of 64 produced four wins by double-digit seeds, matching the total from the entire 2025 first round in a single afternoon. No. 12 High Point stunned No. 5 Wisconsin. No. 11 VCU erased a 19-point deficit to eliminate No. 6 North Carolina in overtime. No. 11 Texas knocked off No. 6 BYU. No. 10 Texas A&M rolled past No. 7 Saint Mary’s. Add two more outright wins by 9-seeds (TCU over Ohio State, Saint Louis demolishing Georgia 102-77), and Day 1 delivered six lower-seeded teams advancing.
Against the spread, underdogs went 10-6 ATS on Thursday. For anyone who read yesterday’s public money report on this site, the result should feel familiar. The public loaded 86% of bets on the biggest chalk. Sharp money pushed lines toward the underdogs. The underdogs delivered.
VCU’s Historic Comeback Defines the Day
North Carolina led VCU by 19 points in the second half. The Rams trailed in a game that looked like a comfortable chalk advance for the Tar Heels. What followed was the largest comeback in Round of 64 history.
Terrence Hill Jr., coming off the bench, scored 34 points on 13-of-23 shooting, including 7-of-10 from three-point range. His step-back three with 15 seconds left in overtime put VCU ahead 82-78. UNC’s Henri Veesaar, who had 26 points and 10 rebounds on the night, went to the free throw line with a chance to tie. He missed both. The Tar Heels’ season ended on a missed pair of free throws, their second consecutive first-round exit and third under coach Hubert Davis since his 2022 title game appearance.
UNC was playing without freshman star Caleb Wilson, who had season-ending thumb surgery in February. The line sat at just 2.5 points, and VCU entered riding a 16-1 stretch over its final 17 games. The market had identified UNC’s vulnerability. The public trusted the brand name anyway.
High Point and the 5-vs-12 Tradition
The 5-vs-12 matchup delivered again. High Point’s 83-82 win over Wisconsin came down to a moment nobody could have scripted: Chase Johnston, a senior three-point specialist who was 0-for-4 on two-point field goals all season, drove for a go-ahead layup with 11.7 seconds remaining. His first made two-pointer of the year won the game.
Wisconsin had opened as a 12.5-point favorite. That line dropped to around 10 by tip-off as sharp money poured in on the Panthers. High Point’s 30-4 record and elite turnover differential had been flagged as an upset profile all week. The public still backed the Badgers. The contrarian side cashed.
With High Point’s win, at least one 12-seed has now advanced in 35 of the last 41 tournaments since the field expanded in 1985. The pattern is one of the most consistent in sports, and bettors still undervalue it every March.
Duke’s Near-Disaster and Louisville’s Narrow Escape
Two favorites that survived Thursday did so in ways that should concern their backers. No. 1 overall seed Duke trailed No. 16 Siena for most of the game before pulling out a 71-65 win. The Saints entered as roughly 28-point underdogs. Siena did not win, but anyone who took the points collected comfortably.
Louisville held off South Florida 83-79 in the matchup highlighted in yesterday’s public money report. The line had dropped from 7.5 to 4.5 during the week as 85% of the money landed on USF. The Bulls pushed Louisville to the edge but couldn’t finish. Still, if you bet South Florida at +4.5, you covered. The sharp money was right about the number, even if the outright upset fell short.
What 10-6 ATS Means Going Into Day 2
A 10-6 ATS day for underdogs in the Round of 64 is strong but not extraordinary. What’s more notable is the pattern: the biggest ATS wins came in the spots where line movement had already signaled vulnerability. Wisconsin moved from -12.5 to -10 and lost outright. Ohio State moved from -4.5 to -2.5 and lost outright. Louisville moved from -7.5 to -4.5 and won by only four.
Day 2 tips off today with another 16 games. The bracket includes several matchups with similar contrarian profiles: injured favorites, hot mid-majors, and lines the market has been adjusting all week. The 2025 tournament was the chalkiest in years, with all four 1-seeds reaching the Final Four. One day into 2026, and the underdogs have already matched last year’s first-round upset total.
The public will load up on chalk again today. That’s what the public does. March has a way of reminding them why the points exist.