The Public Loves Seattle. History Loves the Underdog.
Super Bowl LX is five days away, and the betting market has made its position clear. The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots. At DraftKings, 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread money have landed on Seattle. The public has spoken.
But here’s the number that should give contrarian bettors pause: Super Bowl underdogs have covered in five straight games and are 4-1 outright in that span, including three consecutive outright wins. And since 2001, underdogs are 17-7 against the spread in the Big Game, according to ESPN’s betting data.
Those numbers alone don’t guarantee anything. But when you combine them with who the Patriots actually are this season, the contrarian case for New England starts to look less like wishful thinking and more like pattern recognition.
A 10-Win Turnaround and 60-1 Preseason Odds
New England went 4-13 in 2024. They were 60-1 to win the Super Bowl entering this season, and as long as 120-1 after Week 3. The 10-win improvement from last year to this year’s 14-3 record ties the 1999 Indianapolis Colts and 2008 Miami Dolphins for the largest single-season turnaround in NFL history.
Drake Maye’s second-year leap powered most of it. He led the league in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (113.5) during the regular season. He threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. Only Dan Marino, at a similar age in 1984, had a comparable sophomore campaign that also produced 14 regular-season wins.
The Patriots enter Super Bowl LX on a 16-1 run over their last 17 games. They rank second in points scored and fourth in points allowed. For the first time in Super Bowl history, both teams rank in the top four in scoring offense and scoring defense.
What the Spread Is Actually Saying
The line opened at Seattle -3.5 and climbed to -4.5, pushed by early public money. Sharp bettors at Circa Sports tell a different story. While 67% of spread tickets lean Seattle there too, the actual dollars are nearly even — 52% on the Seahawks. And on the moneyline, 72% of the money at Circa is on the Patriots.
That split between ticket count and dollar amount is a classic sign of public-versus-sharp divergence. Recreational bettors are laying points with Seattle. Bigger, sharper money is taking New England to win outright at +190.
Two seven-figure bets on New England’s moneyline have already been reported. One bettor at Circa wagered $1.1 million on the Patriots at +188. These aren’t casual gamblers chasing a hunch.
The Super Bowl Underdog Trend Runs Deep
The five-year ATS streak favoring underdogs fits into a much larger pattern. Since 2007, Super Bowl underdogs are 13-5 ATS. Since 2001, they’re 17-7 ATS. In the past 10 seasons alone, underdogs are 6-4 outright and ATS. The Patriots sit at +4.5, getting more than a field goal in a game between two 14-3 teams.
Why do Super Bowl favorites struggle to cover? The same dynamics that power contrarian value all season long get amplified in the biggest game of the year. Public money floods the favorite. The spread inflates. And teams facing a two-week media buildup tend to tighten up rather than blow opponents out.
AFC teams specifically have been 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls. This year breaks a five-year streak of the AFC team being favored, making the Patriots just the fourth NFC-favored underdog in the last 20 years. The previous two AFC underdogs both won outright — Denver over Carolina in 2016, Baltimore over San Francisco in 2013.
A Rematch That Favors the Underdog
Super Bowl LX is the ninth Super Bowl rematch in history. In previous rematches, the underdog has historically found value. The 2012 Giants upset the Patriots as underdogs in a rematch of their 2008 meeting. The 2018 Eagles beat New England in a rematch. And in 1996, Dallas covered as an underdog in a Cowboys-Steelers rematch.
The last time these two franchises met for a title, New England won 28-24 as 1-point favorites in Super Bowl XLIX. That game famously ended on Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception. No players from either roster remain from that 2015 contest. No coaches from either staff are still with the teams. The connection is historical, not tactical.
But the narrative matters to the betting public. Seattle’s revenge angle fuels casual money on the Seahawks. Contrarian bettors recognize that narratives inflate spreads rather than predict outcomes.
Where the Numbers Lean
None of this means New England wins. Seattle’s defense leads the NFL in points allowed, third-down defense, yards per rush allowed, and yards per pass attempt allowed. Sam Darnold threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks have won nine consecutive games.
But the contrarian indicators keep piling up on one side. A 17-7 ATS record for underdogs since 2001. A 5-0 ATS streak with four outright wins. Sharp money flowing to the Patriots moneyline while the public piles onto Seattle’s spread. An AFC underdog getting 4.5 points in a game where both teams went 14-3.
The data doesn’t make promises. It identifies situations where the market may be overvaluing one side. And by every contrarian metric available, Super Bowl LX looks like the kind of spot where betting against the crowd has historically paid off.
The public loves Seattle. History loves the underdog. On Sunday, we’ll find out which side had it right.