The Public Has Made Its Choice
Nine days before Super Bowl LX, the betting public has spoken. And once again, they’re siding with the favorite.
According to Caesars Sports director of football trading Joey Feazel, public money is flowing toward the Seattle Seahawks on the spread, while sharp bettors have taken a different approach entirely. “The public isn’t buying the Patriots,” Feazel told FOX Sports this week. What the public may not realize: underdogs have covered five straight Super Bowls.
The line opened at Seahawks -3.5 after Seattle’s conference championship win. Within hours, it climbed to -4.5, where it has remained since Monday. Some books briefly touched -5. The movement tells the story of early money: public bettors laying points with Seattle, sharps sitting on their hands.
Where the Money Is Going
The split between casual and professional bettors reveals the usual Super Bowl pattern. At DraftKings, 55 percent of moneyline bets have landed on the Patriots at +190, suggesting some recreational bettors are chasing the underdog payout. But the spread tells a different story. The public is laying -4.5 with Seattle, expecting Mike MacDonald’s defense to handle Drake Maye.
Sharp money has largely stayed off the sides. Instead, professionals moved early on the total. The game opened at 46.5 and dropped to 45.5 by Tuesday morning after under bets from professional bettors. “There was sharper action on the Under,” Feazel confirmed. “The Seahawks have a phenomenal defense, and the Patriots’ defense really stepped up in these last three games.”
This creates a scenario Caesars is rooting for: a Seattle win combined with a Patriots cover. Their best-case scenario involves the Seahawks winning by fewer than 4.5 points, a middle that would satisfy both public spread bets on Seattle and the massive liability they hold on the Patriots.
The $2 Million Factor
Before the conference championships, Caesars took a $2 million bet on the AFC to win the Super Bowl at +200 odds. That wager represents a potential $4 million win for the bettor, with a total payout of $6 million. The Patriots’ path to Santa Clara has created significant exposure for sportsbooks.
DraftKings faces similar concerns. The Patriots were priced at 120-1 after Week 3, and the book has taken substantial futures liability on New England throughout the season. Multiple million-dollar bets on the Patriots have been reported, including a wager from famous bettor Mattress Mack.
History Favors the Underdog
The public’s confidence in Seattle may be misplaced if recent Super Bowl history is any guide. Underdogs have covered in five consecutive Super Bowls and won three of those games outright. The Eagles beat the Chiefs as +1.5 underdogs last February. The Chiefs won as underdogs the two years before that.
Since 2007, Super Bowl underdogs are 11-7 straight up and 13-5 against the spread. Stretch the sample back to 2001, and underdogs are 13-11 outright and 17-7 ATS. The evidence suggests the public’s default assumption – that favorites should cover the big game – has been reliably wrong for nearly two decades.
All-time, underdogs are 30-27-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The slight edge over 59 games may not seem dramatic, but it reinforces a fundamental contrarian principle: when the public piles onto one side, value often exists on the other.
The Patriots’ Unusual Position
For a franchise that dominated Super Bowls for two decades, New England finds itself in unfamiliar territory. If the Patriots close as underdogs, it will break a streak of eight consecutive Super Bowls in which New England was favored. The last time the Patriots entered the big game as underdogs? Tom Brady’s first full season in 2002, when they beat the St. Louis Rams 20-17 as 14-point dogs.
That historical footnote matters for contrarian bettors. New England knows how to win as underdogs – they just haven’t had to do it in a long time. Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a Patriots linebacker, including that 2002 upset. His team’s defensive identity mirrors those early Brady teams: grind it out, win ugly, cover the number.
The Contrarian Case
Everything about this Super Bowl setup fits the contrarian template. The public likes Seattle. The line has moved in Seattle’s favor. The Seahawks have the better regular season ATS record (14-5 to New England’s 14-6) and the more explosive offense.
But the pattern of recent Super Bowls keeps repeating: underdogs cover. The Eagles covered. The Chiefs covered twice. The Buccaneers covered. The pattern may not predict any individual game, but it should give public bettors pause before laying nearly five points with Seattle.
The sharps staying off the side and betting the under suggests they see a low-scoring game where four points matters. If the Patriots can keep this close, if their defense forces Sam Darnold into mistakes, if Maye’s mobility extends drives – all reasonable possibilities – then New England plus the points offers value.
The public has made its choice. History suggests they may regret it.