Djokovic Was a Shorter Price Against Navone Than He Was Against Tirante

Infographic on the Navone Djokovic upset at the 2026 US Open. Mariano Navone won 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 in four hours and 36 minutes. Djokovic had been 19-0 in US Open first rounds. With the vig stripped, the market moved from 76 percent on him in Cincinnati to 80 to 82 percent in New York.

Mariano Navone beat Novak Djokovic 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 on Sunday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. The Navone Djokovic upset ran four hours and 36 minutes, which the Associated Press called the longest opening match of any major in Djokovic’s career. Djokovic had been 19-0 in US Open first rounds. He led two sets … Read more

Taylor Fritz Lost a Quarterfinal and His US Open Number Tripled

Infographic on US Open outright odds after the Sinner withdrawal on August 21, 2026. Sinner came off the board from +125, worth 44.4 points of raw probability. Alcaraz moved from +175 to +140, a gain of 5.3 points, roughly an eighth of what Sinner gave up. Zverev sits second at +300.

Taylor Fritz lost a quarterfinal on Friday afternoon in Ohio, beaten 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3 by Brandon Nakashima, the 27th seed. On the same day his price to win the US Open more than tripled. Both of those things happened, and the second one had nothing to do with him. What happened instead was the Sinner … Read more

Thiago Tirante Keeps Beating Top Ten Players and the Price Keeps Saying He Won’t

Infographic on the Tirante Djokovic odds in Cincinnati. Djokovic was -425 and Tirante +290, or 76 percent against 24 with the margin stripped out. Tirante won 6-2, 4-6, 4-6 for his fourth career top-ten win. He had 10 tour-level wins in his whole career before 2026 and 23 this season.

The Tirante Djokovic odds had Novak Djokovic somewhere between -360 and -450 when the two walked on court in Cincinnati on Saturday, depending on which book you were reading. Those prices convert to somewhere between 78 and 82 percent. Two public estimates landed in the same neighborhood: the simulation site Dimers had Djokovic at 81 … Read more