Favorites Dominated, But One Home Underdog Covered Sunday’s Divisional Round games completed what became a strong weekend for favorites. The Patriots handled the Texans 28-16 as 3.5-point chalk, while the Rams escaped Chicago with a 20-17 overtime victory. Favorites went 3-1 against the spread across the four-game weekend, a sharp reversal from Wild Card Weekend … Read more
Wild Card Delivered. Now the Stakes Double. Wild Card weekend produced exactly what the historical data suggested: underdogs covered at an elevated rate. The final ATS count: underdogs went 4-2 against the spread across six games. Three underdogs won outright. The Panthers covered 10 points despite losing. The Bears erased an 18-point halftime deficit to … Read more
The Market Has Doubts The Chicago Bears won 12 games this season. They finished first in the NFC North. They earned the conference’s second seed and home-field advantage through the divisional round. And yet, when they host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, they’ll be underdogs. The Bears opened at +4.5 before the line tightened … Read more
Saturday’s Results Followed the Script Wild Card Saturday delivered exactly what the historical data suggested it might. Both home underdogs covered the spread, and one of them pulled off an outright upset that will be remembered for years. The Panthers (+10.5) lost to the Rams 34-31 but stayed within a field goal despite being the … Read more
An Unprecedented Wild Card Weekend Setup Wild Card Weekend kicks off today with something the NFL playoffs have never seen: four road favorites. The Rams, Packers, Bills, and Texans are all favored to win on the road. For the first time in league history, a No. 2 seed is an underdog to a No. 7 … Read more
Six Games, Six Opportunities Wild Card weekend opens tomorrow with six games spread across three days. The public has already placed their bets. The lines have moved. And somewhere in this weekend’s slate, value exists for those willing to look past the obvious narratives. We’ve spent this week examining historical playoff underdog performance, why public … Read more
Division Champion at Home, Getting Points Against a Skidding Rival The Chicago Bears enter Wild Card Weekend as NFC North champions, hosting their first playoff game since the infamous “Double Doink” loss in 2018. They finished 11-6, won their division for the first time in seven years, and secured the conference’s second seed. Their opponent? … Read more
Bears Packers Line Movement: When the Line Flips, Pay Attention The Bears Packers line movement in Week 16 told a story before a single snap was played. Chicago’s 22-16 overtime victory on Saturday night delivered more than just a crucial NFC North win. It delivered a lesson in reading line movement that contrarian bettors should … Read more