Seven Underdogs Won in Week 4, and the Closing Prices Expected Almost Six

Infographic on NFL Week 4 underdogs. Seven of 16 won outright, while closing moneylines expected 5.66. The longest shot to win was the Patriots at +7, about a 26% chance. Five of the seven winners were getting 3 points or less.

New England lost 35-6 in Jacksonville on September 27. Seven days later the Patriots were getting 7 points at Buffalo, which was 3-0, and Drake Maye threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to Efton Chism with under two minutes left to win 29-26. It was the longest shot among seven NFL Week 4 upsets. Casino.org, a … Read more

Buffalo Closed at 5.5 and Won by 10

Infographic on Thursday night's Bills-Lions betting numbers. The spread moved from Buffalo -3 to -5.5 and the total from 51.5 to 54.5. Buffalo won 41-31, covering by 4.5 and going over by 17.5 points.

Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite over Detroit when Week 2 numbers went up on Sunday night, and CBS Sports had the Bills at 5.5 by Thursday, a 2.5-point move in four days. The Bills won 41-31. So the first of the Week 2 closing lines we said we would grade went to the side … Read more

Broncos Home Underdog as #1 Seed – 3rd Time Since 1970

Infographic showing Denver Broncos as +1.5 home underdogs against Buffalo Bills in 2026 Divisional Round. Only third time since 1970 a #1 seed is home underdog. Previous instances: 1971 Vikings lost to Cowboys, 2017 Eagles beat Falcons and won Super Bowl. Broncos 7-9-1 ATS this season.

The Broncos Are a Home Underdog. They’re Also the Number One Seed. The Denver Broncos finished the 2025 season 14-3 and earned the AFC’s top seed for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 run. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. On Saturday, they’ll host the Buffalo Bills in … Read more

NFL Week 15 Upset Recap: Bills and Bucs Reward Contrarian Bettors

Week 15 upset recap infographic showing Bills 48-42 and Bucs 40-17 underdog wins

Week 15 upset recap: two massive underdogs cashed tickets for contrarian bettors. The Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 48-42 as +2.5 road underdogs, snapping Detroit’s 11-game winning streak. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers demolished the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 as +3 road dogs. When public money floods toward favorites, these results remind us why fading … Read more

Bills Chasing Patriots in AFC East: Why Public Perception Creates Contrarian Value

Bills betting value infographic showing AFC East standings and ATS record

Bills AFC East betting value has emerged as the Patriots surge to first place. The Buffalo Bills sit at 10-4, chasing New England in one of the most competitive division races in years. Josh Allen just won MVP in February and signed a $330 million extension in March. The public loves backing the reigning league … Read more