The Jets Are 1-3, the Browns Are 3-1, and the Jets Are Favored

Infographic on Browns at Jets, Week 5. The Jets are 1-3 and the Browns are 3-1, yet the Jets are favored by 1.5. Point differential through four games: Jets minus-8, Browns minus-14.

On Friday we wrote down Jets -2.5 and promised to print Monday’s number beside it. Monday’s number is Jets -1.5. The Browns Jets odds now have a 1-3 team that has lost three straight laying points to a 3-1 team that has won three straight and shares the AFC North lead with Baltimore. If the … Read more

The Line-Move Pattern Didn’t Survive Being Written Down First

Infographic grading NFL Week 3 line moves recorded before kickoff. Numbers that kept moving after Monday went 1-1 on the FOX Sports scoreboard and 0-2 on Yahoo's, against 5-0 in Week 2's hindsight sort.

Seattle was the only number that both scoreboards still had moving at kickoff. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites in the lookahead, 6 on Monday after Jayden Daniels hurt his elbow, and 8.5 by Sunday. Washington won 33-31. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdown passes in Daniels’ place, and linebacker Kain Medrano returned an interception 50 yards … Read more

The 5-0 Pattern Lost Its First Real Test

Infographic on the Rams-Giants result and the NFL Week 3 baseline. The Rams moved from -9.5 to -6.5 and won 28-6, making the kept-moving group 5-1. Twelve of 16 Week 3 lines moved by Monday, led by a six-point Bears-Eagles swing.

Yesterday’s post promised to record the NFL Week 3 odds before a single game was played, and it said one more result would not turn ten coin flips into a rule. The Rams game was that result. Los Angeles was a 9.5-point favorite over the Giants in DraftKings’ September 10 lookahead, 7.5 on Monday and … Read more

The Chargers’ Next Line Fell From 9.5 to 7 After One Sunday

Infographic comparing DraftKings Week 2 NFL lookahead lines from September 10 with Monday morning numbers. The Chargers fell from -9.5 to -7 against the Raiders after losing to Arizona. Nine of 14 lines moved, two of them tied to injuries.

On September 10, DraftKings had the Chargers laying 9.5 points to the Raiders in Week 2, according to a lookahead report from the fantasy site 4for4. Three days later, Los Angeles lost 26-14 at home to Arizona. By Monday morning, CBS Sports had the same book at Chargers -7, and that 2.5-point drop ties for … Read more

Eight Underdogs Won Outright in NFL Preseason Week 1 Focus keyphrase: preseason Week 1 underdogs

Infographic on 2026 NFL preseason Week 1. Eight underdogs won outright across the fifteen games that reached a final score, led by Chicago beating Cleveland 34-10 after trailing 10-0. Underdogs went 10-2 against the spread in twelve settled games and unders finished 9-3.

Chicago trailed Cleveland 10-0 on Saturday and won 34-10. Baltimore came within a late Philadelphia touchdown of its first preseason shutout since 2019. Jacksonville won at New Orleans, the Rams won at Kansas City, and by the time the night slate finished, preseason Week 1 underdogs had won eight games outright across the fifteen that … Read more

Bears Divisional Underdog: Why Market Doubts #2 Seed

Infographic showing Chicago Bears as +3.5 home underdogs in NFC Divisional Round against Los Angeles Rams. Bears are #2 seed, Rams are #5 seed. Caleb Williams has 7 fourth-quarter comebacks this season, most by any QB under 25 in NFL history. Higher-seeded home underdogs since 2000 are 2-0 straight up and ATS.

The Market Has Doubts The Chicago Bears won 12 games this season. They finished first in the NFC North. They earned the conference’s second seed and home-field advantage through the divisional round. And yet, when they host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, they’ll be underdogs. The Bears opened at +4.5 before the line tightened … Read more