Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite over Detroit when Week 2 numbers went up on Sunday night, and CBS Sports had the Bills at 5.5 by Thursday, a 2.5-point move in four days. The Bills won 41-31. So the first of the Week 2 closing lines we said we would grade went to the side … Read more
The full slate of NFL preseason lines is posted, and the board looks like what a market puts out when it has almost nothing to price. Eleven of the sixteen games opened at a point and a half. Six road teams are favored. Totals sit between 36.5 and 40.5, averaging 38 across the slate, and … Read more
Arizona and Carolina meet in Canton on Thursday night to open the preseason, and the NFL preseason betting trends are already making their annual rounds. Underdogs of one to three points covering at 60 percent since 2015. Road underdogs of 2.5 or less sitting at 75-38 against the spread over the last decade. Coach-by-coach ledgers … Read more
Week 16 contrarian betting opportunities emerge as the playoff picture takes shape. Home underdogs are 33-48-4 ATS (41%) in 2024, a losing record that scares most bettors away. But context matters. Some home dogs offer genuine value when public perception inflates the favorite’s line. This week features several spots where fading the public could pay … Read more
Week 15 upset recap: two massive underdogs cashed tickets for contrarian bettors. The Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 48-42 as +2.5 road underdogs, snapping Detroit’s 11-game winning streak. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers demolished the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 as +3 road dogs. When public money floods toward favorites, these results remind us why fading … Read more