Tampa Bay Won by Eight Getting 8.5, and the Streak Ends at 13 or 12

Infographic on Tampa Bay beating Dallas 24-16 on Thursday night as an 8.5-point underdog. The losing streak against the spread ends at 13 or 12, depending on whose Green Bay number counts.

Dallas had the ball at the Tampa Bay 24 on Thursday night, down eight with less than two minutes to play. Dak Prescott’s pass went off tight end Jake Ferguson’s hands, Alex Anzalone caught the carom, and Tampa Bay won 24-16 as an underdog of about 8.5 points. It took 347 days to see the … Read more

Tampa Bay Has Lost 13 Straight Against the Spread, or 12 and a Push

Infographic on Tampa Bay's streak against the spread. With Green Bay laying 2.5 in the 17-14 game it is 13 straight losses. At 3 it is 12 and a push. Sixty seasons of coin flips would produce 2 or 3 streaks of 12 or more.

The Associated Press preview of tonight’s game in Arlington lists Tampa Bay at 0-4 against the spread and says the team is on a 13-game losing streak against the number, the longest of the Super Bowl era. Pro-Football-Reference’s lines page for the same team reads 0-3-1. Both describe the Buccaneers against the spread through four … Read more

The Jets Are 1-3, the Browns Are 3-1, and the Jets Are Favored

Infographic on Browns at Jets, Week 5. The Jets are 1-3 and the Browns are 3-1, yet the Jets are favored by 1.5. Point differential through four games: Jets minus-8, Browns minus-14.

On Friday we wrote down Jets -2.5 and promised to print Monday’s number beside it. Monday’s number is Jets -1.5. The Browns Jets odds now have a 1-3 team that has lost three straight laying points to a 3-1 team that has won three straight and shares the AFC North lead with Baltimore. If the … Read more

The Line-Move Pattern Didn’t Survive Being Written Down First

Infographic grading NFL Week 3 line moves recorded before kickoff. Numbers that kept moving after Monday went 1-1 on the FOX Sports scoreboard and 0-2 on Yahoo's, against 5-0 in Week 2's hindsight sort.

Seattle was the only number that both scoreboards still had moving at kickoff. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites in the lookahead, 6 on Monday after Jayden Daniels hurt his elbow, and 8.5 by Sunday. Washington won 33-31. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdown passes in Daniels’ place, and linebacker Kain Medrano returned an interception 50 yards … Read more

The Over Is Getting the Money in Rio, and the Total Is Already 53.5

Infographic on the Ravens-Cowboys total in Rio. The total opened at 52 at Borgata and was 53.5 at five of seven books Saturday, the highest of Week 3. Hard Rock had 82% of tickets and 92% of money on the Over. International games are Over 29-34 per Covers.

The Ravens Cowboys total opened at 52 at Borgata last Sunday night and 52.5 at DraftKings, according to the odds site VegasInsider and ESPN. By Saturday morning it was 53.5 at five of the seven sportsbooks VegasInsider tracks, for a game on a Rio de Janeiro field that the players’ union spent Friday worrying about … Read more

Atlanta Got 2.5 Points of Help and Won by 21

Infographic on Falcons at Packers, Week 3. Green Bay moved from -6.5 in the lookahead to -7 on Monday, then to -4.5 at the close after Michael Penix Jr. was named the starter. Atlanta won 35-14, beating the closing number by 25.5.

Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite over Atlanta in DraftKings’ September 17 lookahead and 7 on Monday morning, which is where Tuesday’s baseline recorded it. By kickoff the Falcons Packers odds had come all the way back to 4.5 at DraftKings and 5.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars. Atlanta won 35-14 at Lambeau Field. The … Read more

The 5-0 Pattern Lost Its First Real Test

Infographic on the Rams-Giants result and the NFL Week 3 baseline. The Rams moved from -9.5 to -6.5 and won 28-6, making the kept-moving group 5-1. Twelve of 16 Week 3 lines moved by Monday, led by a six-point Bears-Eagles swing.

Yesterday’s post promised to record the NFL Week 3 odds before a single game was played, and it said one more result would not turn ten coin flips into a rule. The Rams game was that result. Los Angeles was a 9.5-point favorite over the Giants in DraftKings’ September 10 lookahead, 7.5 on Monday and … Read more

The Week 2 Numbers That Kept Moving Went 5-0

Infographic grading ten NFL Week 2 line moves. Numbers that kept moving after Monday, including the Chargers and Panthers, went 5-0 against the close. Numbers that stopped, including the Bucs, Ravens and Bears, went 0-5.

On Tuesday we split the Week 2 board into moves with injury news behind them and moves with only a scoreboard behind them, and promised to grade the seven scoreboard moves at the close. They went three right and four wrong. The split that separated them was one we didn’t set up in advance: every … Read more

Houston Got 2.5 More Points During the Week and Covered by 5.5

Infographic on Friday's college football Week 3 results. Texas Tech moved from -10 to -7.5 and won 28-26, so Houston covered by 5.5. Miami moved from -19.5 to -20.5 and won 33-20, so Wake Forest covered by 7.5.

The Las Vegas book Circa Sports opened Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite over Houston and the number was down to 8.5 by Sunday afternoon, which the betting news site VegasInsider read as early money on the underdog. By Friday night the Houston Texas Tech odds sat at 7.5 at most books. Houston lost 28-26 … Read more

Buffalo Closed at 5.5 and Won by 10

Infographic on Thursday night's Bills-Lions betting numbers. The spread moved from Buffalo -3 to -5.5 and the total from 51.5 to 54.5. Buffalo won 41-31, covering by 4.5 and going over by 17.5 points.

Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite over Detroit when Week 2 numbers went up on Sunday night, and CBS Sports had the Bills at 5.5 by Thursday, a 2.5-point move in four days. The Bills won 41-31. So the first of the Week 2 closing lines we said we would grade went to the side … Read more