The Public Loves Seattle. History Loves the Underdog. Super Bowl LX is five days away, and the betting market has made its position clear. The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots. At DraftKings, 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread money have landed on Seattle. The public has spoken. But … Read more
A Historic Line Movement When Bo Nix fractured his ankle on the second-to-last play of Denver’s overtime victory against Buffalo, the betting market reacted swiftly. The Broncos went from 1.5-point favorites on lookahead lines to 5.5-point underdogs in a matter of hours. That 7-point swing represents one of the most dramatic injury-related line movements in … Read more
The Franchise Barrier The Houston Texans have made the divisional round six times in their 24-year history. They’ve lost all six. No other team in the NFL has gone 0-6 or worse in a single playoff round. The Texans are the only current franchise that has never appeared in a conference championship game. On Sunday, … Read more
The Rarest Playoff Spot Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are unicorns. The seeding structure ensures division winners host wild card teams, and those division winners are typically favored. You might see two or three home underdogs across an entire postseason. Some years, none at all. But when they appear, home playoff underdogs have been … Read more
The January Betting Surge Something changes in the betting market every January. Millions of casual bettors who ignored NFL spreads all season suddenly want action on the playoffs. They download apps, make deposits, and start placing bets. Most of them back favorites. This isn’t speculation. Sportsbooks track ticket counts and handle percentages. During the regular … Read more
The Numbers Don’t Lie Since 2017, playoff underdogs have covered the spread in approximately 61% of all postseason games. That’s not a typo. While the public floods sportsbooks with action on favorites every January, the dogs keep cashing tickets. The Wild Card round is where this trend shines brightest. Over the past eight postseasons, underdogs … Read more