Shelton Beat the Favorite and Is Still the Underdog Focus keyphrase: US Open final odds

Infographic on the 2026 US Open men's final between Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton. Zverev moved from +300 to -132 and Shelton from +1000 to +109, with Zverev gaining 27 points of implied probability on the day Alcaraz lost. Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-0.

Ben Shelton knocked out the defending champion at 3:33 in the morning, beat Frances Tiafoe on Friday night, and reached his first Grand Slam final. He walks onto Arthur Ashe on Sunday getting plus money. The US Open final odds have Alexander Zverev at -132 and Shelton at +109 at DraftKings, with Kalshi trading the … Read more

Djokovic Was a Shorter Price Against Navone Than He Was Against Tirante

Infographic on the Navone Djokovic upset at the 2026 US Open. Mariano Navone won 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 in four hours and 36 minutes. Djokovic had been 19-0 in US Open first rounds. With the vig stripped, the market moved from 76 percent on him in Cincinnati to 80 to 82 percent in New York.

Mariano Navone beat Novak Djokovic 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 on Sunday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. The Navone Djokovic upset ran four hours and 36 minutes, which the Associated Press called the longest opening match of any major in Djokovic’s career. Djokovic had been 19-0 in US Open first rounds. He led two sets … Read more

One Knee Injury to a Player Who Isn’t Even Entered Cost the Favorite Nine Points

Infographic on the 2026 US Open draw odds. Alcaraz fell from 35 to 26 percent on Kalshi after the Thursday draw, while Fils doubled from 4 to 8, Fritz rose 4 to 7 and Shelton fell 9 to 6. Sinner's withdrawal moved every man up one seed, making Alcaraz the number two seed in Djokovic's half.

The 2026 US Open singles draws were made privately at Flushing Meadows on Thursday afternoon. Nobody struck a ball. By evening the US Open draw odds had Carlos Alcaraz at 26 percent on Kalshi, down from 35 percent before the names came out of the bowl. Arthur Fils had doubled, 4 to 8. A quarter … Read more

Taylor Fritz Lost a Quarterfinal and His US Open Number Tripled

Infographic on US Open outright odds after the Sinner withdrawal on August 21, 2026. Sinner came off the board from +125, worth 44.4 points of raw probability. Alcaraz moved from +175 to +140, a gain of 5.3 points, roughly an eighth of what Sinner gave up. Zverev sits second at +300.

Taylor Fritz lost a quarterfinal on Friday afternoon in Ohio, beaten 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3 by Brandon Nakashima, the 27th seed. On the same day his price to win the US Open more than tripled. Both of those things happened, and the second one had nothing to do with him. What happened instead was the Sinner … Read more

Thiago Tirante Keeps Beating Top Ten Players and the Price Keeps Saying He Won’t

Infographic on the Tirante Djokovic odds in Cincinnati. Djokovic was -425 and Tirante +290, or 76 percent against 24 with the margin stripped out. Tirante won 6-2, 4-6, 4-6 for his fourth career top-ten win. He had 10 tour-level wins in his whole career before 2026 and 23 this season.

The Tirante Djokovic odds had Novak Djokovic somewhere between -360 and -450 when the two walked on court in Cincinnati on Saturday, depending on which book you were reading. Those prices convert to somewhere between 78 and 82 percent. Two public estimates landed in the same neighborhood: the simulation site Dimers had Djokovic at 81 … Read more

Both US Open Favorites Are Skipping Cincinnati

Infographic on the 2026 US Open futures market. Carlos Alcaraz fell from 27 percent to 12 percent on Kalshi overnight after his Cincinnati withdrawal, as reported by Covers on August 5. Sinner and Alcaraz are both skipping Cincinnati. US Open singles begins August 30.

Jannik Sinner withdrew from the Cincinnati Open on Sunday with a sore right knee. Five days earlier, Carlos Alcaraz pulled out of the same tournament, still recovering from the wrist problem that’s kept him off tour since April. Both US Open favorites will turn up in New York on August 30 with no hard-court matches … Read more