A Sub-.500 Team Just Walked Into Gampel Pavilion and Won
Creighton entered Wednesday night at 13-13 overall and 7-8 in the Big East. The Bluejays had lost five of their last six games. They were 0-3 against ranked opponents this season and 2-7 on the road. UConn, ranked fifth nationally, was a 15.5-to-17.5-point favorite depending on the sportsbook. The Huskies were 13-1 at home, hosting an Emeka Okafor number retirement ceremony at halftime. The final score was Creighton 91, UConn 84.
Just 18 days earlier, UConn had beaten Creighton 85-58 in Omaha. A 27-point blowout. On Wednesday, the Bluejays shot 49% from the floor, hit 10 three-pointers at a 48% clip, and outscored UConn 27-11 at the free throw line. Josh Dix scored 21 points with 13 coming in the second half, and Nik Graves added 18. UConn’s Braylon Mullins put up a career-high 25, but it wasn’t close to enough. The Huskies missed 10 of their next 11 shots after taking a 63-59 lead, and Creighton ripped off a 14-2 run to seize control.
It was UConn’s first conference home loss of the season. Dan Hurley, who had publicly challenged his crowd to show more energy, got exactly the atmosphere he wanted. His team still lost to a squad ranked 83rd in the NET. CBS Sports Bracketology immediately dropped UConn from the No. 1 seed line. For contrarian bettors, this is a familiar script. The public saw a top-5 team at home on a special night and laid massive points. The psychological pull toward favorites in these spots is enormous, and it cost bettors again.
Auburn’s Freefall: Five Straight and Counting
Last season, Auburn went 15-3 in SEC play and reached the Final Four. This season, under first-year head coach Steven Pearl, the Tigers have lost five consecutive games for the first time since 2015-16. Wednesday’s loss was arguably the worst of the bunch.
Auburn trailed Mississippi State by 18 in the second half, fought all the way back to take a 7-point lead with under four minutes remaining, and then watched the Bulldogs close on an 18-5 run for a 91-85 victory. Josh Hubbard’s 46 points included a program-record 10 three-pointers, with 35 of those points coming in the first half alone. That’s the most points scored in a first half by any Division I player since 2020.
Auburn is now 14-12 overall and 5-8 in the SEC. Pearl didn’t sugarcoat it after the game: “Your season is on the line Saturday. If you don’t win on Saturday, you’re probably firmly on the bubble and out of the tournament.” The Tigers host Kentucky this weekend in what amounts to a do-or-die game for their NCAA Tournament hopes.
From a contrarian betting perspective, Auburn’s collapse is a case study in how quickly public perception can shift. Two weeks ago, the Tigers were coming off a four-game winning streak that included wins over St. John’s, Arkansas, and Florida. Now they’re fighting for their postseason lives. Bettors who reflexively back familiar brands based on last year’s results are the ones who get burned when reality catches up.
Alabama-Arkansas: 117-115 in Double Overtime
The other SEC headliner Wednesday was pure chaos. No. 25 Alabama erased a 14-point second-half deficit against No. 20 Arkansas, eventually winning 117-115 in double overtime. It was the second-highest scoring game in Alabama program history, trailing only a 123-point effort against USF in 1971.
Arkansas freshman Darius Acuff Jr. scored 49 points in the loss, setting the program’s freshman single-game scoring record and breaking Todd Day’s mark for points in an SEC game (43 against LSU in 1992). Acuff’s three-pointer with 12 seconds left in regulation tied the game at 95 and forced overtime. He played all 50 minutes.
Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. matched him with a career-high 35 points, while Aiden Sherrell added 26 points and 13 rebounds. Houston Mallette, who didn’t score in regulation, hit the go-ahead three-pointer in each overtime period, including the dagger with 51 seconds left in the second extra session.
For the data-driven bettor, the Alabama-Arkansas game reinforces a key principle: ranked-versus-ranked SEC matchups are coin flips wrapped in chaos. The line on this game was tight for a reason. When two evenly matched teams play at this pace, the outcome comes down to individual shot-making, not pre-game reputation.
What Wednesday Means for March
Selection Sunday is four weeks away. Conference tournament season starts in two. And the landscape keeps shifting.
UConn’s loss to Creighton damaged its case for a No. 1 seed and opened the door for St. John’s to take the Big East regular season title. Auburn might not even make the tournament if it loses to Kentucky. Illinois blasted USC 101-65 in the same Wednesday slate, making its own case for a top seed. The bubble is churning daily.
For anyone building a contrarian approach to March Madness, Wednesday’s results are a preview of what’s coming. The tournament will be seeded based on reputation and resume, but games will be decided by matchups, momentum, and the kind of shot-making that Hubbard, Acuff, and Dix displayed. The public will bet chalk. They always do. And the double-digit seeds that the crowd dismisses will cover more often than the betting market suggests.
We’ll be breaking down the contrarian angles for March Madness in depth over the coming weeks. For now, Wednesday night was a reminder: in college basketball, the underdog always has a chance. Even a 14-13 team, on the road, against the fifth-ranked team in the country.