Tampa Bay started the season 6-2. They were getting serious NFC contender buzz. Baker Mayfield looked like a late-career revelation. The offense was rolling. The four-time NFC South champions appeared ready for another division title run.
That was two months ago. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 1-6. More striking: they’re 0-7 against the spread during that stretch. Their 5-10 ATS record is tied for the worst in the NFL. And yet today, they’re laying 5.5 points on the road against Miami.
This is what perception lag looks like in action.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Tampa Bay’s collapse has been thorough. They’ve lost their last three games, all to NFC South rivals, and held second-half leads in each. The offense that scored 30+ points three times in September hasn’t topped 20 in four of its last five games. Baker Mayfield’s passer rating has cratered since Week 7.
Against the spread, the picture is even worse:
0-7 ATS in their last seven games. 0-3 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more points. 2-6 ATS on the road. Their defense allows 343.3 yards per game (22nd in the NFL), including a league-worst 6.4 yards per play since the bye week.
Meanwhile, Miami has been quietly covering. The Dolphins are 3-1 ATS when underdogs of 5.5 points or more this season. They’re 4-3 ATS at home. Even with rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers making just his second career start, the number suggests the market hasn’t fully adjusted to Tampa Bay’s freefall.
Why the Line Hasn’t Moved
Public perception moves slowly. The Buccaneers are four-time defending NFC South champions. Mayfield made the Pro Bowl last year. The names on the roster – Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antoine Winfield Jr. – still carry weight. When casual bettors see Tampa Bay, they see the team that won five one-score games to start the year, not the team that’s blown second-half leads in three straight.
The market remembers the 6-2 Bucs. The current team is 7-8 and falling.
The Contrarian Read
When a team is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games and still getting laid as a road favorite, the line is telling you something about public perception versus reality. The Dolphins aren’t good. They just lost 45-21 to Cincinnati. But that’s exactly why the spread is only 5.5 instead of 7 or more.
Tampa Bay’s situation is precarious. They trail Carolina by a game in the NFC South with two to play. They need this win to stay alive. Desperation can cut two ways in betting: sometimes it produces focused performances, sometimes it produces tight play and mistakes. The Bucs have been trending toward the latter.
The historical pattern of teams going 0-7 ATS suggests the market has been slow to adjust. That adjustment often comes suddenly, but for now, the line still reflects the team Tampa Bay was in October, not the team they’ve become in December.
Understanding why lines move – and why sometimes they don’t move enough – is central to identifying value in betting markets.