Super Bowl LX: The Contrarian Case for Patriots +4.5

Super Bowl LX matchup graphic showing Seahawks -4.5 vs Patriots +4.5. Super Bowl underdogs 17-7 ATS since 2001. Public betting 67% on Seattle. Underdog ATS streak 5-0. Line moved from -3.5 to -4.5. Sharp money at Circa 72% on Patriots moneyline. Patriots 60-1 preseason, 10-win turnaround.

The Public Loves Seattle. History Loves the Underdog. Super Bowl LX is five days away, and the betting market has made its position clear. The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots. At DraftKings, 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread money have landed on Seattle. The public has spoken. But … Read more

Both Super Bowl QBs Are Injured. The Betting Line Doesn’t Care.

Infographic comparing Super Bowl LX quarterback injuries. Drake Maye questionable with right shoulder, Sam Darnold limited with left oblique since January 15. Spread steady at Seahawks -4.5 with 75% public money on Seattle. Underdogs 13-5 ATS in Super Bowl since 2007.

Two Injured QBs, One Unchanged Line Super Bowl LX kicks off in six days, and both starting quarterbacks are banged up. Drake Maye is dealing with a right shoulder injury. Sam Darnold has been managing an oblique issue for nearly three weeks. And the betting line? Seahawks -4.5, exactly where it’s been for over a … Read more

Drake Maye Questionable for Super Bowl LX: Why the Line Hasn’t Moved

Infographic showing Drake Maye listed as questionable for Super Bowl LX with shoulder injury and illness. Spread remains Seahawks -4.5 with no movement. Underdogs 5-0 ATS in last five Super Bowls. Market signals Maye will play despite injury report.

The Patriots Starting QB Is Questionable. Why Hasn’t the Line Budged? Drake Maye missed the Patriots’ final practice in Foxborough on Friday with a shoulder injury and illness. He’s officially listed as questionable for Super Bowl LX. And the betting market? Barely a shrug. The line sits at Seahawks -4.5, roughly where it’s been all … Read more

Super Bowl LX: Public Bets Seahawks, But Underdogs Have Covered Five Straight

Infographic showing Super Bowl LX public betting trends. Public bets on Seahawks -4.5, but underdogs have covered 5 straight Super Bowls. Since 2007, underdogs are 13-5 ATS. Patriots are first-time underdogs since 2002.

The Public Has Made Its Choice Nine days before Super Bowl LX, the betting public has spoken. And once again, they’re siding with the favorite. According to Caesars Sports director of football trading Joey Feazel, public money is flowing toward the Seattle Seahawks on the spread, while sharp bettors have taken a different approach entirely. … Read more

Every Million-Dollar Super Bowl Bet Is on the Patriots: What Sharps See That the Public Doesn’t

Infographic showing both disclosed million-dollar Super Bowl LX bets are on the underdog Patriots. Mattress Mack bet $2M at +200, Circa bettor wagered $1.1M at +188. Sportsbooks expect public on Seahawks -4.5. Super Bowl underdogs are 17-7 ATS since 2001.

The Whales Are Betting the Underdog Every disclosed million-dollar Super Bowl LX wager has landed on the same side: the New England Patriots. While sportsbooks expect recreational bettors to flood in on the favored Seattle Seahawks, the biggest individual bets are going against the grain. For contrarian bettors, the early money trail tells a familiar … Read more

Patriots as Super Bowl Underdogs for First Time Since 2002: The Dynasty Parallel

Infographic comparing Patriots as Super Bowl underdogs in 2002 (plus-14 vs Rams, won 20-17) versus 2026 (plus-4.5 vs Seahawks). Super Bowl underdogs are 17-7 ATS (71%) since 2001, with five straight covers.

The Last Time This Happened The New England Patriots enter Super Bowl LX as 4.5-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks. For a franchise that dominated the betting landscape for two decades, that status carries unusual weight. The last time the Patriots were underdogs in the Super Bowl, they were 14-point dogs against the St. Louis … Read more

Second-Year QB Super Bowl History: Drake Maye and the Marino Parallel

Infographic showing second-year QBs are 4-3 in Super Bowl history with Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Wilson winning. Drake Maye at 23 years 162 days is the 2nd youngest starter ever. Super Bowl underdogs are 17-7 ATS (71%) since 2001 with 5 straight covers. Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks.

The Marino Parallel Drake Maye enters Super Bowl LX carrying a distinction that cuts two ways. At 23 years and 162 days old on February 8, the Patriots quarterback will become the second-youngest starter in Super Bowl history. The only QB younger? Dan Marino, who was 23 years and 127 days old when the Dolphins … Read more

Super Bowl LX: Patriots +4.5 Underdog in Seahawks Rematch

Super Bowl LX matchup infographic showing Seahawks -4.5 vs Patriots +4.5. Historical context: Super Bowl XLIX in 2015 ended Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 on Malcolm Butler goal-line interception. Patriots making NFL-record 12th Super Bowl appearance.

The Setup: Favorites Seeking Redemption Super Bowl LX is officially set, and the narrative writes itself. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet on February 8th at Levi’s Stadium in what marks the first Super Bowl rematch between these franchises since one of the most infamous plays in NFL history. Eleven years ago, … Read more

Conference Championship Underdogs: Playoffs 5-7 ATS

Playoff Underdogs Series Part 6 infographic showing Conference Championship results. Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 (Broncos +3.5 covered). Seahawks beat Rams 31-27. 2025 playoff underdogs now 5-7 ATS with Super Bowl LX remaining. Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks.

Conference Championship Weekend: The Final Four Becomes Two The 2025 NFL playoff picture is now complete. After three rounds of postseason action, we know the Super Bowl LX matchup: the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots on February 8th at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. For contrarian bettors, Conference Championship weekend delivered … Read more

Conference Championship Public Money: 75%+ on Favorites

Conference Championship public money infographic showing Patriots drawing 75% of bets as 4.5-point road favorites vs Broncos and Seahawks drawing 79% vs Rams as 2.5-point home favorites. Both underdogs have contrarian value with Broncos 9-1 ATS historically in Conference Championships.

The Public Has Picked Its Sides Conference Championship Sunday arrives with the betting public lining up behind the favorites. In the AFC, 75% of spread bets are backing the New England Patriots as 4.5-point road favorites at Denver. In the NFC, nearly 79% of bettors are riding the Seattle Seahawks at -2.5 against the Los … Read more