Tampa Bay Won by Eight Getting 8.5, and the Streak Ends at 13 or 12

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Infographic on Tampa Bay beating Dallas 24-16 on Thursday night as an 8.5-point underdog. The losing streak against the spread ends at 13 or 12, depending on whose Green Bay number counts.

Dallas had the ball at the Tampa Bay 24 on Thursday night, down eight with less than two minutes to play. Dak Prescott’s pass went off tight end Jake Ferguson’s hands, Alex Anzalone caught the carom, and Tampa Bay won 24-16 as an underdog of about 8.5 points. It took 347 days to see the … Read more

Tampa Bay Has Lost 13 Straight Against the Spread, or 12 and a Push

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Infographic on Tampa Bay's streak against the spread. With Green Bay laying 2.5 in the 17-14 game it is 13 straight losses. At 3 it is 12 and a push. Sixty seasons of coin flips would produce 2 or 3 streaks of 12 or more.

The Associated Press preview of tonight’s game in Arlington lists Tampa Bay at 0-4 against the spread and says the team is on a 13-game losing streak against the number, the longest of the Super Bowl era. Pro-Football-Reference’s lines page for the same team reads 0-3-1. Both describe the Buccaneers against the spread through four … Read more

Ten of 93 Teams Have Come Back From 0-2, About What Three Coin Flips Would Produce

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Infographic on teams down 0-2 in a best-of-five. Ten of 93 came back, 10.8%, against 12.5% for three straight coin flips. The market gives the Guardians about 15% and the Yankees about 16%. The last team to do it was the 2017 Yankees.

Cleveland lost twice at Progressive Field, 3-0 on Saturday and 4-3 on Monday, to a White Sox team that finished a game behind it in the AL Central. The Yankees made four errors on Monday night in St. Petersburg and lost 5-2 to the Rays. Both teams are down two games to none in a … Read more

Seven Underdogs Won in Week 4, and the Closing Prices Expected Almost Six

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Infographic on NFL Week 4 underdogs. Seven of 16 won outright, while closing moneylines expected 5.66. The longest shot to win was the Patriots at +7, about a 26% chance. Five of the seven winners were getting 3 points or less.

New England lost 35-6 in Jacksonville on September 27. Seven days later the Patriots were getting 7 points at Buffalo, which was 3-0, and Drake Maye threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to Efton Chism with under two minutes left to win 29-26. It was the longest shot among seven NFL Week 4 upsets. Casino.org, a … Read more

The Jets Are 1-3, the Browns Are 3-1, and the Jets Are Favored

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Infographic on Browns at Jets, Week 5. The Jets are 1-3 and the Browns are 3-1, yet the Jets are favored by 1.5. Point differential through four games: Jets minus-8, Browns minus-14.

On Friday we wrote down Jets -2.5 and promised to print Monday’s number beside it. Monday’s number is Jets -1.5. The Browns Jets odds now have a 1-3 team that has lost three straight laying points to a 3-1 team that has won three straight and shares the AFC North lead with Baltimore. If the … Read more

Cleveland Has Been an Underdog Eight Straight Times and Won the Last Three

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Infographic on Browns 27, Steelers 24 on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland was a 2.5-point home underdog, has been an underdog in 8 straight games and has won the last 3.

Andre Szmyt’s 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left gave Cleveland a 27-24 win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Browns Steelers odds had Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 38.5, per ESPN’s DraftKings listing. Cleveland has now been priced as the worse team in all four of its games this … Read more

The Market Made an 81-81 Team the Favorite, and the White Sox Swept

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Infographic on the AL Wild Card Series. The 81-81 Astros opened at -145 to advance against the 84-78 White Sox at +125. Chicago swept, 6-3 and 7-3 in Houston, its first playoff series win since 2005.

Houston won the AL West at 81-81, the worst record a division winner has ever finished with in a full season, according to ESPN and CBS Sports. The White Sox went 84-78 and finished a game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Going into the White Sox Astros Wild Card series, the team with three … Read more

The Line-Move Pattern Didn’t Survive Being Written Down First

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Infographic grading NFL Week 3 line moves recorded before kickoff. Numbers that kept moving after Monday went 1-1 on the FOX Sports scoreboard and 0-2 on Yahoo's, against 5-0 in Week 2's hindsight sort.

Seattle was the only number that both scoreboards still had moving at kickoff. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites in the lookahead, 6 on Monday after Jayden Daniels hurt his elbow, and 8.5 by Sunday. Washington won 33-31. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdown passes in Daniels’ place, and linebacker Kain Medrano returned an interception 50 yards … Read more

The Over Is Getting the Money in Rio, and the Total Is Already 53.5

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Infographic on the Ravens-Cowboys total in Rio. The total opened at 52 at Borgata and was 53.5 at five of seven books Saturday, the highest of Week 3. Hard Rock had 82% of tickets and 92% of money on the Over. International games are Over 29-34 per Covers.

The Ravens Cowboys total opened at 52 at Borgata last Sunday night and 52.5 at DraftKings, according to the odds site VegasInsider and ESPN. By Saturday morning it was 53.5 at five of the seven sportsbooks VegasInsider tracks, for a game on a Rio de Janeiro field that the players’ union spent Friday worrying about … Read more

Atlanta Got 2.5 Points of Help and Won by 21

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Infographic on Falcons at Packers, Week 3. Green Bay moved from -6.5 in the lookahead to -7 on Monday, then to -4.5 at the close after Michael Penix Jr. was named the starter. Atlanta won 35-14, beating the closing number by 25.5.

Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite over Atlanta in DraftKings’ September 17 lookahead and 7 on Monday morning, which is where Tuesday’s baseline recorded it. By kickoff the Falcons Packers odds had come all the way back to 4.5 at DraftKings and 5.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars. Atlanta won 35-14 at Lambeau Field. The … Read more