The Market Has Overreacted to Mahomes’ Torn ACL
Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending ACL tear on December 14 sent shockwaves through the NFL world. But savvy bettors should be asking a different question: has the market overcorrected? The Chiefs opened as 10.5-point favorites against the Titans before Mahomes went down. That line has plummeted to Chiefs -3, creating a potential Chiefs betting value opportunity that contrarian bettors should not ignore.
A 7.5-point swing is massive. It essentially values Mahomes at nearly a touchdown against the worst team in the NFL. While losing a three-time Super Bowl champion matters, the adjustment may have gone too far when facing a Titans team that sits at 2-12 and has been called “the worst team in 25 years” by opposing coaches.
Gardner Minshew Is Not Your Average Backup
The market often treats backup quarterbacks as interchangeable liabilities. Gardner Minshew is anything but average. The 29-year-old journeyman brings 46 career starts across five teams, including a Pro Bowl selection in 2023 with the Colts where he threw for 3,305 yards and led Indianapolis to a 7-6 record as a starter.
Minshew’s career numbers tell a compelling story: 68 touchdown passes, a 90.2 passer rating, and — most importantly for bettors — a 2.5 touchdown-to-interception ratio that ranks 10th among all quarterbacks since 2019. He knows how to protect the football and move an offense.
The data on backup quarterback performance is encouraging here. Since 2019, teams starting a different quarterback than the week prior have gone 51.9% against the spread. The market consistently overreacts to quarterback changes, creating value on the side with the new signal-caller.
The Titans Are Historically Bad
Tennessee’s 2-12 record only scratches the surface of how dysfunctional this franchise has become. The Titans rank dead last in the NFL in yards per game (242.4) and points per game (16.1). They have lost 12 of their last 13 games dating back to last season and fired head coach Brian Callahan in October after a 4-19 record.
Under interim coach Mike McCoy, things have not improved. The Titans have an eight-game home losing streak — the longest active streak in the NFL. They are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and just allowed 430 total yards and 292 passing yards to San Francisco in Week 15.
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick, has struggled mightily. He has been the NFL’s most-sacked quarterback while throwing the fewest touchdowns among regular starters. The supporting cast around him is barren, with one Raiders coach telling The Athletic that “they don’t have any difference-makers other than Jeffery Simmons.”
Chiefs Defense Remains Elite
While the offense will miss Mahomes, Kansas City’s defense has been a strength all season. The Chiefs rank 4th in the NFL in points allowed (19.1 per game) and have held opponents to manageable totals even in losses. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit does not need Mahomes to dominate a Titans offense that averages fewer than 15 points per game.
Consider: the Chiefs have scored only 26 combined points over their last two weeks, yet kept both games competitive because the defense limited opponents to 36 total points. Against a Tennessee offense that struggles to move the chains, expect a low-scoring affair that plays into Kansas City’s strengths.
The Andy Reid Factor
Andy Reid has been coaching in the NFL since 1999 and has navigated nearly every possible situation. He has had success with backup quarterbacks before, and the three remaining games give him an opportunity to evaluate personnel and develop depth for 2026. Reid’s teams play disciplined football regardless of who is under center.
The Chiefs may be eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2014, but this is still a proud organization with veteran leaders like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Playing out the string does not mean tanking — it means proving the roster is deeper than one player, however exceptional that player may be.
Chiefs Betting Value: The Contrarian Play
Here is the case for Chiefs -3 offering genuine betting value:
- The line moved 7.5 points on a single injury against the NFL’s worst team
- Gardner Minshew has 46 career starts and a Pro Bowl on his resume
- Backup quarterbacks cover at 51.9% since 2019
- Tennessee is 3-12 ATS in last 15 home games
- Titans rank last in offense, 28th in defense
- Chiefs defense allows just 19.1 points per game (4th in NFL)
- The under has hit in 10 of 14 Chiefs games this season
The public sees “Mahomes out” and assumes Kansas City cannot win convincingly. The sharps see a 7.5-point overcorrection against a team that has won two games all season. In a league where 3-point games happen constantly, getting the better team at less than a field goal against the worst team in football is a spot contrarian bettors dream about.
The Play
Chiefs -3 offers legitimate value for bettors willing to fade the Mahomes narrative. Kansas City’s defense can shut down Tennessee’s anemic offense, and Minshew only needs to manage the game and avoid turnovers. Against a team allowing 28.1 points per game with an eight-game home losing streak, that should be enough to cover a field goal.
The market has overcorrected. The Chiefs are still the better team by a wide margin. Kansas City -3 represents one of the more compelling value spots of Week 16.