The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2025 season with -450 odds to make the playoffs. They’re now sitting at +390 after dropping to 6-7, with their playoff probability hovering around 9-15% depending on which model you trust. The dynasty that won three of the last five Super Bowls might not even reach the postseason. For contrarian bettors, this collapse offers lessons about when public perception creates value on both sides of a line.
The Numbers Behind the Decline
Kansas City has lost four of its last five games. Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions against Houston in Week 14, finishing 14-of-33 for 160 yards. It marked the first time in his career that Mahomes has been under .500 in December. The offensive line is battered, with multiple starters missing time, and the passing attack ranks among the league’s most inefficient despite Mahomes’ arm talent.
According to CBS Sports’ SportsLine projections, the Chiefs have just a 9.1% chance of making the playoffs. Yet as recently as Thanksgiving week, some sportsbooks still had Kansas City at -122 to make the postseason. The market priced in a 55% probability when the actual number was closer to 40%.
That’s a 15-point edge for anyone willing to bet against the name on the jersey. The public sees “Mahomes” and “Reid” and assumes the magic will return. The numbers say the magic isn’t there this year.
Dynasty Nostalgia Inflates Lines
This season demonstrates how reputation distorts betting markets. The Chiefs went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, which masked underlying problems that have surfaced in 2025. They’re 0-5 in one-score games this season. That kind of regression was statistically likely, but the market didn’t adjust quickly enough.
Super Bowl odds tell a similar story. Kansas City opened the season among the favorites. They’ve now crashed to +4500, a freefall from the top tier they occupied for half a decade. The adjustment happened gradually as losses mounted, giving sharp bettors weeks of exploitable value.
The lesson isn’t specific to the Chiefs. It applies to any team riding past success. Public money flows toward familiar names and recent championships. When current performance contradicts that reputation, the lines move slowly. That lag creates opportunity.
What the Chiefs Collapse Teaches
Contrarian betting works because markets overreact to narratives and underreact to data. The Chiefs’ decline was visible in their metrics before Week 1. Offensive line concerns were documented. The passing efficiency numbers were soft. Yet the betting public kept laying points against opponents who had no business being underdogs.
Houston closed as a four-point underdog in Week 14 despite having the NFL’s top-ranked defense. The market respected Kansas City’s home-field advantage and Mahomes’ reputation more than the Texans’ current form. Houston won by ten.
This pattern will repeat with other teams and other dynasties. When a franchise’s reputation no longer matches its production, contrarian value emerges. The key is recognizing the gap before the market corrects it. For more on identifying these situations, see our guide to fading the public and the psychology behind why betting against favorites feels uncomfortable.
Looking Ahead
The Chiefs need to win their final four games and get significant help from other teams to reach the playoffs. That’s possible but unlikely. The more interesting question for bettors is whether the market has fully corrected.
Kansas City still draws public money based on past success. If they face a team with better current metrics but less name recognition, the contrarian side might still offer value. The dynasty is functionally over, but some bettors haven’t accepted that yet. Their reluctance to fade Mahomes keeps lines soft in spots where the data suggests otherwise.
Dynasties end slowly, then all at once. The Chiefs appear to be in that transition. Smart bettors adjusted weeks ago. The public is still catching up.