The greatest NFL upsets remind us why contrarian betting has value. Every NFL season produces games where heavy favorites lose and double-digit underdogs win outright. The betting public watches their “sure things” collapse.
These games are not flukes. They are reminders that point spreads measure probability, not certainty. The biggest underdogs in NFL history did not just cover – they proved that on any given Sunday, the unexpected is always possible.
Here are some of the most significant upsets in NFL history, measured by point spread, stakes, and impact.
Super Bowl III: Jets over Colts (January 1969)
The game that changed professional football and remains one of the greatest NFL upsets ever.
The Baltimore Colts entered Super Bowl III as 18-point favorites, the largest spread in Super Bowl history at the time. The NFL’s Colts had finished 13-1 and demolished the Cleveland Browns 34-0 in the NFL Championship. The AFL’s Jets were considered inferior representatives of an inferior league.
Joe Namath guaranteed victory. Most dismissed it as bravado.
Final score: Jets 16, Colts 7.
New York’s defense intercepted four passes. Matt Snell ran for 121 yards. The Colts, who had scored 402 points in the regular season, managed just one late touchdown.
The upset legitimized the AFL and set the stage for the merger. It remains the standard against which all Super Bowl upsets are measured. For more on why upsets like this happen, see our underdog betting philosophy.
Super Bowl XLII: Giants over Patriots (February 2008)
New England entered the game 18-0, chasing perfection. The Patriots had outscored opponents by an average of nearly 20 points per game. According to Pro Football Reference, they compiled a record +315 point differential that season. They were 12-point favorites against a Giants team that had squeaked into the playoffs as a wild card.
Vegas and the public expected a coronation. They got one of the greatest NFL upsets in sports history.
Final score: Giants 17, Patriots 14.
The Giants’ defensive line pressured Tom Brady relentlessly. David Tyree made the “Helmet Catch” that kept the winning drive alive. Eli Manning, widely criticized all season, outplayed his counterpart when it mattered most.
The Patriots’ perfect season ended one game short. The 12-point spread matched Super Bowl III for the largest ever overcome by an underdog winner.
2007 Giants vs Patriots Week 17: The Preview
Five weeks before Super Bowl XLII, the Giants gave a preview of what was to come.
The 15-0 Patriots traveled to Giants Stadium seeking to complete the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. New England was a substantial favorite against a Giants team that had already clinched a wild card spot and had little to play for.
The Giants nearly pulled off the upset, losing 38-35 in a game that went down to the final minutes. New York led multiple times in the fourth quarter, and the lead changed hands three times in the final period.
While the Patriots survived to complete their perfect regular season, the Giants proved they could compete with the “unbeatable” team. The confidence from that near-miss carried into the Super Bowl, where they finished the job.
The game drew massive television ratings after the NFL arranged an unprecedented three-network simulcast on CBS, NBC, and NFL Network – the first time an NFL game aired on three networks since Super Bowl I.
Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots over Rams (February 2002)
The “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams were 14-point favorites against a Patriots team starting a sixth-round draft pick named Tom Brady. This remains one of the greatest NFL upsets in championship game history.
St. Louis had led the league in scoring with 503 points. Their offense featured Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt. The Patriots had finished 11-5 with a defense-first identity and an unproven quarterback.
Final score: Patriots 20, Rams 17.
Adam Vinatieri’s 48-yard field goal as time expired won it. Brady, in his first Super Bowl start, was named MVP. The dynasty that would dominate the next two decades had begun with one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history.
Super Bowl LII: Eagles over Patriots (February 2018)
Philadelphia lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz to a torn ACL in December. Backup Nick Foles took over a team that had been the NFC’s best.
By Super Bowl Sunday, the Patriots were 4.5-point favorites. New England was appearing in its eighth Super Bowl under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Eagles had not won a championship since 1960.
Final score: Eagles 41, Patriots 33.
Foles threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown on the “Philly Special,” a trick play that became iconic. The Eagles outscored the greatest dynasty in modern NFL history in a shootout few expected them to win.
1995 Panthers over 49ers: Expansion Team Makes History
On November 5, 1995, the expansion Carolina Panthers traveled to San Francisco to face the defending Super Bowl champion 49ers. No one gave them a chance.
The Panthers were in their inaugural season. The 49ers were the defending champions with Steve Young, Jerry Rice, and a roster full of stars. Carolina was a significant underdog.
Final score: Panthers 13, 49ers 7.
Carolina became the first expansion team in NFL history to defeat a defending Super Bowl champion in its inaugural season. The Panthers’ defense intercepted Young and held the high-powered 49ers offense to just seven points.
The upset was a watershed moment for expansion franchises and proved that even first-year teams could compete with established champions. Carolina would finish that inaugural season 7-9 – remarkable for an expansion team.
Bills over Oilers: The Comeback (January 1993)
The AFC Wild Card game between Buffalo and Houston remains the largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Houston led 35-3 in the third quarter. The Bills, playing without injured quarterback Jim Kelly, appeared buried. Backup Frank Reich led what happened next.
Final score: Bills 41, Oilers 38 (overtime).
Buffalo scored 35 unanswered points to force overtime, then won on a field goal. The 32-point deficit overcome has never been matched in the postseason.
While point spread data from this era is less precise, the Oilers were substantial favorites by halftime. Anyone holding a Bills ticket experienced the most improbable cover in playoff history. This game demonstrates why understanding emotional discipline matters – many bettors would have given up on their tickets.
2024 Cowboys over Commanders: Biggest Upset of the Season
The 2024 NFL season produced few double-digit underdog winners, making the Cowboys’ Week 12 victory all the more notable.
Dallas traveled to Washington as 10.5-point underdogs. The Commanders were fighting for playoff positioning. The Cowboys were struggling through a disappointing season.
Final score: Cowboys 34, Commanders 26.
Cooper Rush finished 24-of-32 with 247 passing yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Through 17 weeks of the 2024 season, the Cowboys were the only team to win as a double-digit underdog.
Since 2022, underdogs of 10+ points have gone just 9-55 straight up, making every double-digit underdog win noteworthy.
2024 Raiders over Ravens: Week 2 Shocker
The 2024 season opened with multiple upsets, but none bigger than Las Vegas stunning Baltimore in Week 2.
The Ravens were 9-point home favorites coming off a season where they had the league’s MVP in Lamar Jackson. The Raiders were expected to be one of the worst teams in football.
Final score: Raiders 26, Ravens 23.
Las Vegas overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win. Entering the game, the Raiders had lost 49 consecutive games when trailing by 10+ points at any point in the fourth quarter. The upset proved that no deficit is insurmountable, particularly for contrarian bettors willing to take the points.
2024 Commanders over Lions: Playoff Stunner
Washington’s divisional round victory in Detroit ranked among the biggest NFL playoff upsets in recent history.
The Commanders entered as 8-point underdogs against a Lions team carrying Super Bowl expectations. Detroit had home-field advantage and one of the league’s best records.
Washington pulled off the upset, advancing to the NFC Championship game. The victory demonstrated that playoff experience and home-field advantage do not guarantee victory – a core principle of fading the public.
What These Greatest NFL Upsets Teach Us
Several patterns emerge from studying historic NFL upsets.
Defense travels. Many of the biggest underdog winners relied on defensive pressure and turnovers. The Jets in Super Bowl III, the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, and countless regular season upsets followed this template. Offense gets the attention, but defense creates chaos.
Motivation gaps matter. Teams chasing history (the 2007 Patriots) or overlooking opponents face psychological hurdles. Underdogs with nothing to lose often play freer than favorites carrying expectations. This connects to why underdogs feel wrong to bet on.
Point spreads are not predictions. A 12-point spread means the favorite is expected to win by 12, not that they will win by 12. The spread reflects probability. A 12-point underdog wins outright roughly 5-7% of the time. Rare, but not impossible.
Variance is real. The best team does not always win. Football is a single-elimination sport with small samples. Injuries, turnovers, and bounces can swing any individual game. Over a season, the better teams rise. In any single game, anything can happen.
The Contrarian Takeaway
These greatest NFL upsets are not reasons to bet every underdog. They are context for why contrarian betting has merit.
The public sees a dominant favorite and assumes the spread is too small. Money flows to the favorite. The line moves. By kickoff, the favorite is laying more points than their true advantage justifies.
Most of the time, favorites still cover. However, the upsets happen often enough to matter. Over large samples, the value accumulates on the other side. For data on how often underdogs actually cover, see our underdog win rates by sport analysis.
When you bet underdogs, you are not predicting upsets. You are acknowledging that upsets happen at a rate the public underestimates. These historic games are the extreme examples of a pattern that plays out in smaller ways every week.