The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons
Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams.
The opening line? Panthers +10.5 at home.
If that number holds, Carolina will become the largest home underdog in NFL playoff history. The Rams, a team many picked to win the Super Bowl, are laying double digits on the road in January. The public is piling on. But contrarian bettors should pay attention to what history says about this situation.
Home Playoff Underdogs Have a Perfect Record
Here’s where it gets interesting. Home underdogs of four points or more in playoff games are 9-0 against the spread over the last 50 years. Not a small sample quirk. Nine for nine across five decades.
The previous six home underdogs of 4+ points didn’t just cover. They won outright. The three most recent covered in losing efforts, but they still beat the number. Nobody has laid this many points to a home playoff team and walked away with a cover.
The most recent comparable situation came in the 2020 playoffs. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers went to Washington as 10-point favorites against a 7-9 team led by Taylor Heinicke. Washington lost 31-23 but covered the spread comfortably. Before that, the 2011 Broncos caught 7.5 points at home against the Steelers and won outright on an 80-yard Demaryius Thomas touchdown in overtime.
The Rematch Factor
Carolina already beat these Rams once this season. In Week 13, the Panthers were 10-point home underdogs and won 31-28 outright. Bryce Young threw two fourth-down touchdowns in the second half, including a 43-yarder to Tetairoa McMillan with 6:34 left. Matthew Stafford threw three turnovers, including a strip-sack that sealed the game.
One game doesn’t predict another. Stafford has been playing at an MVP level, throwing for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns with just eight interceptions this season. The Rams are among the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl for good reason. But the Panthers proved they can compete with this team at Bank of America Stadium.
The Numbers That Favor Carolina
Beyond the historic ATS trend for home playoff underdogs, a few other patterns stand out:
The three teams that made the playoffs with a worse point differential than Carolina’s -69 went a combined 3-0 in the Wild Card round. Being bad in the regular season doesn’t guarantee a playoff blowout.
The Panthers went 8-0 against the spread in games following an outright loss this season. They just lost to Tampa Bay in Week 18. That’s a trend worth noting for anyone following the fade the public approach.
Carolina is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season, one of the better covering records in the league when getting points.
What Contrarian Bettors Should Consider
The Rams are the better team. Nobody disputes that. Stafford, Puka Nacua, and a defense that has found its stride make Los Angeles a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The public money will flow heavily toward the Rams, and the reasoning is sound.
But history has been unforgiving to teams laying big numbers on the road in January. The playoffs compress talent gaps. Home crowds matter more. And 10.5 points is a lot to give anyone in a single-elimination game.
Carolina’s underdog status may be historically large. But so is the historical edge for teams in their position. The Panthers will likely lose this game. The question is whether they lose by two touchdowns or keep it closer than the public expects.
If you’re looking for a contrarian play in Wild Card Weekend, the largest home underdog in NFL playoff history might be worth a second look.