Two Historic Losing Streaks Meet on Monday Night
Monday Night Football brings an unusual collision of postseason futility. The Pittsburgh Steelers, on a six-game playoff losing streak dating to January 2017, host the Houston Texans, who are 0-6 in road playoff games in franchise history. One of these streaks ends Monday night at Acrisure Stadium.
The Texans opened as 3-point road favorites. For contrarian bettors who follow the fade the public approach, this line raises an interesting question: which historic failure is more likely to continue?
The Steelers’ Playoff Collapse Has Been Historically Bad
Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since beating the Kansas City Chiefs 18-16 in the 2016 divisional round. Since then, the Steelers have lost six consecutive postseason games, five of them by double digits. The only close loss came against Jacksonville in a 45-42 shootout, and even that game saw the Steelers trail 21-0 early.
The numbers are staggering. Pittsburgh has been outscored 73-0 in first quarters during this six-game stretch. According to CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson, the Steelers are the only team in playoff history to trail by 21 or more points in six consecutive playoff games. No other team has done it in even four straight.
Mike Tomlin acknowledged the history during his press conference this week but deflected it from the current roster. Only two players from the 2016 playoff run remain on the team: kicker Chris Boswell and defensive tackle Cam Heyward. Twenty-three players on the current roster have never experienced any of those losses.
Houston’s Road Playoff Problem
The Texans have their own demons. Houston is 6-2 in Wild Card games, all at home. But they’re 0-6 in the divisional round, all on the road. This makes them the only team in the NFL that has never won a road playoff game. They’re also the only franchise among the league’s 32 teams to have never reached a conference championship.
C.J. Stroud is 0-2 on the road in playoff games, failing to account for a touchdown in either loss. The road environment at Acrisure Stadium in January presents a different challenge than the controlled climate of NRG Stadium.
Houston enters on a nine-game winning streak, the longest active run in the league. Their defense has been elite all season. But winning on the road in the playoffs has proven elusive for this franchise regardless of roster construction.
Tomlin’s Home Underdog Record Changes the Equation
Here’s where the contrarian case emerges. Mike Tomlin has compiled one of the best home underdog records in NFL history. According to Bet Labs data, the Steelers are approximately 23-9-3 against the spread as home underdogs during the Tomlin era, a cover rate over 70 percent.
The market consistently undervalues Pittsburgh in these spots. When the Steelers are underdogs at home, Tomlin’s teams have historically outperformed expectations. This applies to both the psychological and strategic elements of his coaching.
Several betting models, including SportsLine’s computer simulation, project Pittsburgh covering at rates approaching 60 percent. R.J. White, who has a strong track record on Steelers games, noted that the market seems to be treating Pittsburgh as “DOA” despite a team that scored 25 or more points in nine of its last 12 games.
What the Numbers Suggest
Both teams finished 9-8 against the spread this season. Houston failed to cover in two of its last three games despite winning. The Texans’ defense allowed 30 points in Week 18 to a Colts team starting a fourth-string rookie quarterback, their highest total allowed all year.
Pittsburgh closed the regular season strong, beating Baltimore to win the AFC North. DK Metcalf returns from suspension for this game, and T.J. Watt should be available after recovering from a collapsed lung suffered earlier in the season.
Aaron Rodgers, now in his age-42 season, brings playoff experience that few quarterbacks can match. His presence gives Pittsburgh a legitimate chance to control game pace against a Texans team that prefers to dictate tempo with their defense.
Something Has to Give
The Texans’ inability to win road playoff games represents one of the most persistent franchise-level trends in the NFL. The Steelers’ inability to win any playoff game for nine years represents another. Both can’t continue Monday night.
The market has chosen Houston, installing them as road favorites despite never winning away from home in the postseason. The public betting patterns lean toward the team on the longer winning streak with the better regular season record.
But Tomlin’s track record as a home underdog suggests Pittsburgh performs best when doubted. The Steelers at +3 fit a profile that has historically produced ATS value. Whether that translates to ending a playoff losing streak remains uncertain, but the market may be discounting Pittsburgh’s home field advantage more than the data supports.