Ask a casual bettor how they’re doing and they’ll tell you their record. “I’m 14-9 this month.” Ask a professional and they’ll tell you something different. They’ll talk about closing line value.
Closing line value, or CLV, measures whether you consistently get better numbers than the market’s final price. It’s the single best predictor of long-term betting success, more reliable than win rate, more meaningful than units won over a short period.
Understanding CLV changes how you think about betting.
What is closing line value
The closing line is the final point spread or odds offered before a game starts. It represents the market’s best estimate of the true probability after all information and money has been factored in.
Closing line value is the difference between the number you bet and the closing number.
If you bet the Bills at +3 and the line closes at +1, you have positive CLV. You got two points the market eventually priced away. Those extra points came from betting before the market fully adjusted.
If you bet the Bills at +3 and the line closes at +5, you have negative CLV. You could have gotten a better number by waiting.
CLV can be measured in points for spread bets or in implied probability for moneylines and totals. Either way, the concept remains the same: did you beat the market’s final assessment?
Why closing line value matters more than wins
Wins and losses over small samples are dominated by variance. You can win 60% of your bets in a month and have no edge at all. Similarly, you can lose 55% of your bets and actually be a sharp bettor running bad.
Closing line value cuts through the noise.
When you consistently bet numbers that move against you after you bet, you’re identifying value before the market does. That skill persists. The wins follow eventually, even if short-term results are ugly.
When you consistently bet numbers that move in your favor after you bet, you’re on the wrong side of the market. You might win some bets anyway, but you’re fighting an uphill battle.
Here’s the key insight: the market is smarter than any individual bettor. The closing line reflects the collective wisdom of sharp bettors, sophisticated models, and massive amounts of money. Beating that line consistently means you’re seeing something the market doesn’t fully price until later.
How professionals use closing line value
Sharp bettors track their CLV obsessively. Some don’t even track win-loss records.
The logic makes sense: if you beat the closing line by an average of 2% across hundreds of bets, you’re a winning bettor. The math guarantees it over time. Your actual results might fluctuate, but the expected value stays positive.
Conversely, if you consistently get worse numbers than the close, you’re a losing bettor regardless of recent results. A hot streak doesn’t change the underlying math.
Books know this too. Sportsbooks identify sharp bettors by their CLV, not their win rate. A bettor who consistently beats the close will eventually get limited or banned, even if their current record isn’t impressive.
How to track your closing line value
Tracking CLV requires recording both the line you bet and the closing line.
For every bet, note the team and spread you bet (e.g., Bills +3), the closing spread (e.g., Bills +1), and the difference (+2 points of CLV).
Over time, calculate your average CLV across all bets. Positive average CLV means you’re beating the market. Negative means you’re not.
Some tracking tools and spreadsheets do this automatically. If you’re building your own, the key is consistency. Record the closing line from the same source for every bet.
What good closing line value looks like
For point spreads, sharp bettors aim for 0.5 to 1.5 points of average CLV.
That sounds small. And it is small. But over thousands of bets, half a point of CLV translates to significant profit. Games are often decided by small margins. Half a point turns losses into pushes and pushes into wins.
For moneylines, CLV is measured in implied probability. Getting +150 when the line closes at +130 represents positive CLV. The implied probability moved from about 40% to about 43%, meaning you got value.
Recreational bettors often have negative CLV without realizing it. They bet during peak hours when lines are sharpest. They take popular sides after the line has moved against them. They chase steam after the value is gone.
The relationship between closing line value and win rate
A direct mathematical relationship exists between CLV and expected win rate.
In NFL betting, each point of spread CLV adds roughly 2.5-3% to win probability. If you average +1 point of CLV, you’re adding about 2.5% to your expected win rate.
At -110 odds, you need 52.4% to break even. One point of CLV gets you to roughly 55%. That’s a healthy edge.
This relationship explains why sharps care about half-points so much. Moving from +3 to +3.5 isn’t just “half a point.” It’s a meaningful increase in expected win probability, especially around key numbers like 3 and 7 in football.
How to improve your closing line value
Bet early. Lines are softest early in the week, before the market has fully formed. Sharp money comes in early. By the time casual bettors place wagers on Sunday morning, much of the value has disappeared.
Bet against public money. When public action pushes a line, you can often get value by taking the other side before the line moves further. This is the fade-the-public approach applied with timing in mind.
Shop for the best number. Different books offer different lines. If one book has Bills +3 and another has Bills +2.5, take the +3. Over time, shopping adds fractions of a point that compound into real CLV.
Bet before news. If you have an opinion on a game and injury news is pending, consider betting before the report. If the news goes your way, the line moves and you have CLV. If it doesn’t, you might have lost value. Sharp bettors often take this calculated risk.
Avoid chasing steam. When a line moves sharply due to professional action, the value is largely gone. Betting after the move means you’re getting a worse number than the sharps got. That’s negative CLV by definition.
Closing line value in context
CLV isn’t the only thing that matters. Context still counts.
A bet can have positive CLV and still lose. You bet +3, the line closes at +1, and the team loses by 10. You had value. You still lost. Both things are true.
CLV also doesn’t capture everything about a bet’s quality. You might have information the market never fully prices in, leading to positive expected value that doesn’t show up as CLV. But for most bettors, CLV remains the best available proxy for edge.
The point isn’t to obsess over every half-point. It’s to understand that the number you get matters, and getting better numbers consistently is the defining trait of winning bettors.
The concept of market efficiency that underlies CLV has roots in financial theory. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that prices reflect all available information, which is why beating the closing line consistently is so difficult and so meaningful.
Putting it all together
The strategy section of this site covers four connected concepts:
Fading the public identifies who tends to be wrong and why. Public money creates biases. Betting against those biases has historical value.
Line movement shows where money is going. Reading movement helps you understand whether the public or sharps are driving a number.
Bankroll management keeps you in the game. Small unit sizes survive variance. Proper sizing lets the math play out.
Closing line value measures whether you’re actually finding value. Beating the close consistently is the mark of a sharp bettor.
These concepts work together. Fade the public in the right spots. Watch how the line moves. Size your bets to survive. Track your CLV to know if you’re actually winning or just getting lucky.
The rest of this site provides context, data, and psychology to support this approach. Start with what interests you, and keep building from there.