The Texans Are Getting Plus Money. Read That Again.
Houston enters Saturday’s game at Los Angeles riding a seven-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NFL. The Texans have the league’s best defense in both total yards allowed (272.3 per game) and scoring (16.6 points per game). They’ve held opponents to 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games. And they’re getting plus money on the moneyline.
This line opened with Houston as a 1.5-point favorite. By Friday, it had swung to Chargers -1.5 to -2.5. That’s a 3-4 point move against a team that hasn’t lost since Week 9.
What the Market Sees
The Chargers are 11-4 and have won four straight. Justin Herbert is coming off his best game of the season, a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance against Dallas. Los Angeles ranks third in total defense and still has a shot at the AFC’s top seed if they win out. The market respects all of this.
But here’s what the market might be underweighting: the last time these teams met, Houston demolished the Chargers 32-12 in the AFC Wild Card round last January. Herbert threw four interceptions in that game – more than he’d thrown in the entire 2024 regular season. The Texans sacked him four times.
This year’s Houston defense is even better than that one.
The Pass Rush Mismatch
The Chargers have allowed 51 sacks this season, the fifth-most in the NFL. Herbert is being pressured on 42.4% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, Danielle Hunter has recorded 9.0 sacks during Houston’s seven-game winning streak, second only to Myles Garrett’s 12.0 in that span.
This isn’t a good matchup for Herbert. He knows it. The Texans defense knows it. The line movement suggests the public doesn’t fully appreciate it.
The Contrarian Read
When a team wins seven straight, dominates defensively, and still gets plus money, something in the market has mispriced the matchup. Maybe it’s the road environment. Maybe it’s respect for Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. Maybe it’s recency bias from the Chargers’ 34-17 win over Dallas.
Whatever the reason, the Texans fit the contrarian profile perfectly: a winning team that the public has somehow decided to bet against.
According to Odds Shark, Houston has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They’re 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games. Derek Stingley Jr. just returned an interception for a touchdown last week. This defense creates turnovers and makes life miserable for quarterbacks under pressure.
What the Data Says
The Texans have committed just five giveaways during their 10-2 run over the last 12 games – the fewest in the NFL. They’re on pace to become the first team in 17 years to not allow 250 passing yards in a game. The last time Herbert faced this secondary, he couldn’t get anything going.
Is Houston guaranteed to win? Of course not. The Chargers are a legitimate playoff team with a quarterback capable of brilliance. But the line movement against a team this hot with a defense this dominant is the kind of signal that makes contrarian bettors pay attention.
Plus money on a seven-game winning streak with the league’s top defense. It’s an unusual spot, and one worth noting for anyone tracking how markets price perception versus performance.