Division Champion at Home, Getting Points Against a Skidding Rival
The Chicago Bears enter Wild Card Weekend as NFC North champions, hosting their first playoff game since the infamous “Double Doink” loss in 2018. They finished 11-6, won their division for the first time in seven years, and secured the conference’s second seed. Their opponent? The Green Bay Packers, who limped into the postseason on a four-game losing streak.
And somehow, the Bears are home underdogs.
Green Bay opened as 1.5-point road favorites for Saturday night’s showdown at Soldier Field. For contrarian bettors who follow the fade the public approach, this line presents exactly the kind of market inefficiency worth examining.
Historical Context Favors the Home Team
The Packers became just the fourth team in NFL history to enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The previous three teams on this list were the 1986 New York Jets, the 1999 Detroit Lions, and the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers. None of them reached the conference championship. The 1999 Lions and 2024 Steelers both trailed by multiple touchdowns at halftime of their Wild Card games before losing by double digits.
History suggests teams entering January on extended losing skids struggle to flip a switch in the postseason. Yet the betting market has installed Green Bay as the favorite, apparently valuing name recognition and recent playoff experience over current form.
ATS Records Tell the Story
The numbers paint a clear picture of how each team has performed against expectations this season. Chicago enters with a 10-7 record against the spread. The Bears have covered consistently, particularly in games where public perception undervalued them. Their underdog philosophy has played out in real time throughout Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach.
Green Bay sits at 5-10-1 ATS. When favored this season, the Packers have covered at an even worse rate of 5-9. The market has consistently overvalued them, and bettors who faded Green Bay as favorites have profited.
The Packers do lead the all-time series 109-97-6, including 12 wins in the last 14 regular season meetings. But this isn’t a regular season game. These rivals have met in the postseason just twice before, in 1941 and 2011, splitting those matchups. The historical dominance doesn’t translate to playoff precedent.
What the Season Series Actually Shows
Chicago and Green Bay split their two regular season games. The Packers won 28-21 at Lambeau Field in Week 14. Three weeks later, the Bears rallied from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime and eventually won 22-16 at Soldier Field.
That December 20 game saw Chicago execute an onside kick, convert a fourth-and-four touchdown pass to force overtime, and capitalize on a Packers fumble in the extra period. The Bears showed resilience under pressure that translates well to January football.
Green Bay has lost four straight since that game. They fell to Denver, then dropped the rematch in Chicago, got blown out by Baltimore at home in primetime, and rested starters in a meaningless Week 18 loss to Minnesota. Whatever momentum existed after their early-season success has evaporated.
The Contrarian Case
Public money tends to flow toward familiar names and recent champions. The Packers have made the playoffs three consecutive years. They have a proven quarterback in Jordan Love and a coaching staff with postseason experience under Matt LaFleur.
But the psychological pull toward backing Green Bay ignores the reality of where both teams stand right now. Chicago improved from 5-12 last season to 11-6 and a division title. They lead the NFL in turnover differential at plus-21. They’ve won close games all year, going 6-1 in contests decided by five points or fewer.
The Bears earned the right to host this game. The Packers enter having lost four straight for the first time since 2023. One team is ascending. The other is stumbling toward what could be the end of their season.
Why the Market Favors Green Bay
The case for the Packers centers on experience and talent. Jordan Love threw for 3,381 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Josh Jacobs provides a reliable rushing attack. Matt LaFleur has guided this team to the playoffs three straight years and knows how to prepare for January.
There’s also the rivalry factor. Green Bay has dominated the regular season series, winning 12 of the last 14 meetings before this year’s split. The public remembers those results. They remember Aaron Rodgers owning Chicago for years before his departure. They remember the Packers winning the 2011 NFC Championship at Soldier Field.
But memory can mislead. This Packers team bears little resemblance to those dominant versions. They’re coming off a stretch where they lost to the Broncos, Bears, Ravens, and Vikings in succession. Their defense allowed the most yards they’ve given up all season in the Baltimore blowout. The unit that started the year with back-to-back wins over Detroit and Washington has looked vulnerable for weeks.
The Bottom Line
The line says Green Bay by 1.5 points. The evidence suggests that number may undervalue what Chicago has accomplished and overstate Green Bay’s current form. For bettors who trust the data over the narrative, the Bears as home underdogs fit the profile of situations where contrarian value has historically emerged.
Division champions hosting playoff games don’t often get points. When they do, and when the opponent enters on the worst losing streak allowed into the postseason, the market may be offering more value than it realizes.