The NFL’s Christmas Day slate featured three divisional matchups and two underdog covers. The Vikings won outright as 7.5-point underdogs against the Lions, while the Chiefs covered as 13-point home dogs against the Broncos. For contrarian bettors, it was a profitable holiday.
Vikings 23, Lions 10: The Upset of the Day
Minnesota entered as +7.5 underdogs with an undrafted rookie quarterback making his second career start. The public dismissed them. Max Brosmer had thrown four interceptions in his only previous start. The Vikings were eliminated from playoff contention. The Lions were desperate, needing to win out to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Every narrative pointed to Detroit.
Instead, the Vikings forced six turnovers. Harrison Smith, the 14-year veteran safety, had an interception and a sack. The Minnesota defense sacked Jared Goff five times. Goff lost three fumbles on botched snaps alone. Jordan Addison sealed it with a 65-yard jet sweep touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Final score: Vikings 23, Lions 10. The underdog didn’t just cover. They won by 13.
The Lions finished with 231 total yards in what Pride of Detroit called “one of the worst offensive showings in recent memory.” Detroit’s playoff hopes died on Christmas. A team that opened the season at +1200 to win the Super Bowl is now 8-8 and watching the postseason from home.
The contrarian signals were there. The Vikings had won three straight entering the game. They were 3-0 ATS in those three games. Meanwhile, the Lions were 1-5 ATS in their previous six. The public kept backing Detroit based on reputation. The market kept making them pay.
Broncos 20, Chiefs 13: The Cover Nobody Expected
Kansas City was a 13-point home underdog against Denver. The Chiefs had lost Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to torn ACLs. Third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun was making his first career NFL start. Everything pointed to a blowout.
The Broncos won, but only by 7. The Chiefs covered.
Oladokun wasn’t spectacular, going 13-of-22 for 66 yards with a touchdown. But he didn’t turn the ball over, and the Kansas City defense kept the game close into the fourth quarter. The Broncos needed a late touchdown drive to put it away, and even then, Oladokun nearly led a comeback with passes to Travis Kelce in the final minute.
For anyone who took Chiefs +13, it was never in doubt. The line movement told the story: when a spread balloons from 5.5 to 13 in less than a week, the market is overreacting to news. The Chiefs were bad, but not 13 points worse than their closing line suggested.
Cowboys 30, Commanders 23: The Favorite Struggles
Dallas won 30-23 against Washington, which was starting 39-year-old third-string quarterback Josh Johnson. The Cowboys were favored by anywhere from 6.5 to 9.5 points depending on timing and sportsbook. Winning by exactly 7 meant a push at -7, a loss for those who laid -7.5 or more, and a cover only for those who got the early -6.5.
The Cowboys jumped out to a 21-3 lead before the Commanders rallied to make it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Dallas converted all six of their fourth-down attempts to ice the game. But the favorite bettors who laid a touchdown or more didn’t get the cover they expected.
The Pattern Continues
Christmas Day was another reminder that public perception lags reality. The Lions were a “good team in a must-win spot.” The Chiefs were “historically bad without Mahomes.” Both narratives were true. Neither justified the spread.
The Vikings won their fourth straight game. Their defense hadn’t allowed a passing touchdown in six consecutive games entering Christmas. But the public saw “undrafted rookie quarterback” and assumed Minnesota couldn’t compete. The psychological bias against underdogs is real, and it creates value.
The Chiefs lost their fifth straight. They’re 6-10 and will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014. But 13 points was too many. The market overcorrected for the quarterback situation, and anyone who faded the public on the inflated spread found value.
Christmas Day ATS Results
Vikings +7.5: WON outright, covered by 20.5 points
Chiefs +13: Lost by 7, covered by 6 points
Commanders +7: Lost by 7, push at -7 (result varied by book)
Two clear underdog covers out of three games. The biggest favorite (Broncos -13) failed to cover. The biggest narrative (desperate Lions vs. rookie QB) produced the biggest upset. Even the Cowboys, despite winning comfortably for most of the game, couldn’t put away an opponent starting a 39-year-old third-stringer by more than a touchdown.
Contrarian betting is about recognizing when the market has overpriced a favorite. On Christmas Day, the market overpriced Detroit and Denver. The underdogs delivered.