The Jaguars Are Home Underdogs Despite an 8-Game Winning Streak
The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t lost since early November. They’ve won eight straight games. They’ve covered the spread in all eight of those games. They finished the regular season 12-4-1 against the spread, the best mark in franchise history.
And they’re underdogs at home in the Wild Card round.
The Bills opened as 1.5-point road favorites at EverBank Stadium on Sunday. That line reflects the betting market’s belief that Josh Allen’s talent outweighs everything Jacksonville has accomplished over the past two months. But here’s the problem with that logic: Allen has never won a road playoff game.
Josh Allen Is 0-4 on the Road in the Playoffs
Allen’s playoff resume looks impressive at first glance. He’s 7-6 overall in the postseason, with seven of those wins coming at home. On the road, it’s a different story. Four games. Four losses. Zero wins.
Those road losses include two AFC Championship Games in Kansas City, a divisional round game in Cincinnati, and a wild card loss in Houston during his second season. The common thread isn’t bad luck or fluky plays. Allen simply hasn’t performed at his best away from Orchard Park when the stakes are highest.
Now he travels to Jacksonville to face the hottest team in football. The Jaguars went 7-1 at home this season with a league-best 15.8-point average margin of victory. No team dominated at home like Jacksonville did in 2025.
Trevor Lawrence Has Been the Best QB in Football Since Thanksgiving
While the market fixates on Allen’s star power, Lawrence has quietly played MVP-caliber football down the stretch. In his last six games, Lawrence has thrown for 19 touchdowns with just one turnover. His passer rating during that span exceeds 113.
The Jaguars’ offense averaged 33.6 points per game during their eight-game winning streak. They outscored opponents by 153 points during that run. Head coach Liam Coen has transformed this unit into one of the league’s most explosive attacks, and Lawrence has responded by playing the best football of his career.
Yet the market still favors the road team led by a quarterback who has never won in this situation.
Why the Line Doesn’t Make Sense
Consider what the Jaguars have accomplished:
They won eight straight games. They covered in all eight. They finished 13-4 and won the AFC South. They dominated at home all season. Their quarterback is playing at an elite level. And they’re getting points against a team that has to travel, led by a quarterback with a losing road playoff record.
The public sees Josh Allen and assumes Buffalo should be favored. That’s exactly how public betting patterns create value on the other side. Name recognition drives action. Situations get overlooked.
Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in football. But his road playoff struggles are real, and they’re facing a Jaguars team that has been fading public expectations all season.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The Jaguars covered the spread in every game during their winning streak. They exceeded expectations week after week. The market kept undervaluing them, and they kept proving the market wrong.
Jacksonville’s 12-4-1 ATS record is the best in franchise history. Meanwhile, Buffalo finished 8-9 against the spread, barely above .500. The Bills have been a public team all season, drawing heavy betting action that hasn’t translated to consistent covers.
Home underdogs in the playoffs have historically offered value, particularly when facing road favorites with questionable travel records. Four road playoff losses suggest something real about how Allen performs in hostile environments when elimination is on the line.
The Matchup Favors Jacksonville
Buffalo’s passing attack lacks weapons beyond Allen himself. The Jaguars defense, meanwhile, features the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense, which could limit Allen’s ability to extend plays and create with his legs. When Allen can’t scramble effectively, his road struggles become more pronounced.
Jacksonville’s offensive balance also creates problems for Buffalo. Travis Etienne surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the third time in four seasons. Lawrence can beat you through the air or on the ground. The Jaguars don’t rely on one player the way Buffalo relies on Allen.
The market has set this line based on reputation. Allen is a star. The Bills are a familiar playoff team. But the data suggests Jacksonville deserves more respect than a team getting points at home after dominating their building all season while their opponent’s quarterback has never won in this exact situation.
Eight straight wins. Eight straight covers. A home record that leads the league. A quarterback playing at an MVP level. And they’re underdogs. That’s the definition of a contrarian opportunity.