NFL Christmas Day betting offers a historic oddity: the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos. That’s the largest home underdog margin for the franchise since October 1977, when they lost to the Raiders 37-28 en route to a 2-12 season.
For a team that made the last three Super Bowls and seven consecutive AFC Championship games, this is what rock bottom looks like.
How the Line Got Here
The lookahead number before Week 16 had Denver favored by 5.5 points. That assumed Gardner Minshew would start. Then Minshew went down with what initially appeared to be an ACL tear (later confirmed to be a less severe injury, but he’s still out). Third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun is now in line to start on Christmas night.
The market responded. The spread ballooned from 5.5 to 11.5 to 13 points, depending on the book. At BetMGM, the Chiefs hit +13 – a number they haven’t seen at home in nearly 50 years.
This is what happens when perception finally catches reality. The public no longer bets Kansas City reflexively. The name no longer carries the weight it did three weeks ago.
The Contrarian Question
Here’s the contrarian dilemma: Does the massive line overcorrect in the other direction?
Consider the numbers. Teams that have been 13+ point underdogs this season are 1-10 straight up but 7-4 against the spread, according to SportsLine data. In other words, they lose, but they cover. The spread overcorrects for how bad they actually are.
The Chiefs still have Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Xavier Worthy. They still have Andy Reid calling plays. Their defense allows 19.1 points per game, fifth-best in the league. They’re not a functional offense right now, but they’re not a 13-point worse team than they were a month ago.
Denver’s Road Trouble
The Broncos complicate this picture. Denver is 12-3 and leads the AFC, but their road performance against the spread tells a different story. The Broncos are just 2-5 ATS away from home this season.
They also just lost 34-20 to Jacksonville as 3.5-point favorites. Elite teams don’t usually follow bad losses with dominant performances. And while Bo Nix has been solid, asking him to cover 13 points in a hostile environment on a short week is a tall order.
Denver has been 18-2 straight up as a double-digit favorite since 2012, but only 13-7 against the spread in those games, per OddsShark trends. The Broncos win big, but not always big enough.
The Other Christmas Games
The holiday slate also features Cowboys at Commanders (-7 Dallas) and Lions at Vikings (-6 Detroit).
Dallas has covered five straight against Washington and is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. The Cowboys also lead the league in Over percentage at 11-4 this season. If you’re looking for points, this is the game.
Detroit needs to win out and get help to make the playoffs after their Week 16 loss to Pittsburgh. The Lions are 23-10 ATS coming off losses under Dan Campbell and Jared Goff since 2022. The Vikings are starting Max Brosmer at quarterback after J.J. McCarthy’s hand injury. That’s a significant line movement factor that has already pushed Detroit from -5.5 to -6.
The Contrarian Takeaway
Christmas Day presents a rare situation: a dynasty reduced to a double-digit home underdog against their biggest rival. The public has fully abandoned Kansas City. The line reflects a team without hope.
That’s usually when underdog value appears. Not because the Chiefs will win – they almost certainly won’t – but because 13 points is a lot to cover for any team, even one as broken as Kansas City.
The Broncos need to win by two touchdowns on the road, on a short week, after a bad loss, against a defense that’s still among the league’s best. That’s not a gimme.
Merry Christmas to the contrarians.