NFL Week 14 delivered seven underdog wins, and two of them carried playoff implications that will echo for weeks. The Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-10 as +185 moneyline underdogs, and the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Baltimore Ravens 27-22 as +225 dogs. Both results flipped division races and altered the AFC landscape heading into December’s final stretch.
The complete list of Week 14 NFL upsets includes Saints (+310) over Buccaneers, Steelers (+225) over Ravens, Texans (+185) over Chiefs, Titans (+165) over Browns, Jaguars (+120) over Colts, Vikings (+100) over Commanders, and Chargers (+100) over Eagles. That’s a lot of money left on the table by anyone who automatically faded the plus-money side.
Houston’s Defense Smothered Mahomes
The Texans entered Arrowhead Stadium with the NFL’s top-ranked defense in both points and yards allowed. They backed it up by holding Patrick Mahomes to 14-of-33 passing for 160 yards with three interceptions. It marked the first time since 2018 that Mahomes has been under .500 in December.
Public perception still treats Kansas City as contenders based on past success. However, the Chiefs have now lost four of their last five games and dropped to 6-7. Their playoff odds, which sat at -450 before the season, have cratered to +390. The dynasty looks finished, but the betting market was slow to adjust. Houston closed as a four-point underdog despite having a defense built to neutralize exactly what Kansas City does best.
C.J. Stroud threw for 203 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. Nico Collins caught four passes for 121 yards. The Texans controlled time of possession and won the turnover battle decisively. They did everything you’d want from a team getting points on the road.
Pittsburgh Takes Control in the AFC North
The Steelers were 5.5-point underdogs at Baltimore despite both teams entering at 6-6. The market made the Ravens a significant home favorite, and Pittsburgh responded with arguably their best offensive performance of the season. Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards with a passing touchdown and a rushing score.
The game hinged on red zone execution. Baltimore’s offense, which converted 74.2% of red zone trips into touchdowns last year, is converting just 44.9% this season. In their losses, that number drops to 36.4%. The Ravens reached the red zone three times in the fourth quarter and came away with two field goals and zero points on the final trip.
Pittsburgh now holds the head-to-head tiebreaker and leads the AFC North at 7-6. The Ravens fell to 6-7 and their playoff odds dropped from -500 preseason to +185 underdog territory. This is what happens when public perception lags behind current performance. A month ago, betting against Lamar Jackson at home felt risky. The numbers say otherwise.
Seven Underdogs Won. That’s Not an Accident.
Week 14’s underdog performance wasn’t a fluke. It reflects a broader trend in the 2025 NFL season. According to ESPN, favorites have won 66% of games straight up this season, down from 71% last year. The parity is real, and the preseason favorites have faltered consistently.
Obviously, underdogs are underdogs because they’re not expected to win. However, when lines get inflated by name recognition and outdated expectations, value appears. Houston’s defense was demonstrably elite. Pittsburgh had been competitive despite their record. The market knew these things but still made both teams significant underdogs. That disconnect is where contrarian bettors find edges.
For more on why betting against public perception works over large samples, see our breakdown of the fade the public strategy. The psychology behind these inflated lines is covered in our piece on why underdogs feel wrong even when the numbers support them.
What Week 14 Reinforced
The AFC is wide open. Preseason favorites like the Chiefs (-450 to make playoffs) and Ravens (-500 to make playoffs) are now underdogs to reach the postseason at all. Meanwhile, teams like the Patriots and Bears briefly held conference top seeds. The chaos benefits anyone willing to reassess teams based on current form rather than reputation.
Underdogs don’t need to win every week to be profitable. They need to win more often than the market expects. Seven winners from fourteen games suggests the public continues to overvalue favorites, especially when those favorites are struggling franchises coasting on past success. That’s a trend worth tracking as the playoff picture takes shape.