Saturday’s NFL doubleheader produced something contrarian bettors rarely see: both underdogs won outright. The Texans beat the Chargers 20-16 as +1.5 road dogs. The Ravens crushed the Packers 41-24 as +3 to +4.5 underdogs. Two games, two outright underdog victories, two covers by double digits when you factor in the spread.
Combined with Christmas Day’s results, Week 17 has been a case study in fading public perception.
Texans 20, Chargers 16
The line on this game told a story. Houston opened as 1.5-point favorites, then watched the number swing 3 points to Chargers -1.5 by kickoff. The public saw Justin Herbert coming off a 300-yard performance against Dallas. They saw the Chargers at home with a shot at the AFC West title. They bet accordingly.
What actually happened: C.J. Stroud hit Jayden Higgins for a 75-yard touchdown on his first pass of the game. By the end of the first quarter, Houston led 14-0. Herbert was sacked five times. Cameron Dicker missed both a field goal and an extra point. The Texans’ defense did what it has done all season.
Houston clinched its third consecutive playoff berth and extended its winning streak to eight games. The Broncos clinched the AFC West without playing.
Ravens 41, Packers 24
This one wasn’t supposed to be close. Green Bay was at home, had already clinched a playoff spot, and was only a 3-point favorite despite the Ravens needing to win to stay alive. Both starting quarterbacks were out – Lamar Jackson (back) and Jordan Love (concussion) – but the market still favored the Packers.
Derrick Henry made that look foolish.
The veteran running back carried 36 times for 216 yards and four touchdowns, both career highs. His seventh career 200-yard game set the NFL record, passing Adrian Peterson and O.J. Simpson. He scored three times in the first half alone, giving the Ravens a 27-14 lead at the break. Green Bay hadn’t allowed more than 24 points in 14 straight home games before Saturday.
Tyler Huntley managed the game efficiently. The Ravens outrushed the Packers 307-79. Baltimore won by 17 as road underdogs.
Week 17’s Contrarian Pattern
Add Saturday’s results to Christmas Day, and the pattern is clear:
Vikings +7.5 at Lions: Won outright, 23-10. Chiefs +13 at Broncos: Covered, lost by 7. Cowboys -7 at Commanders: Push. Texans +1.5 at Chargers: Won outright, 20-16. Ravens +3 at Packers: Won outright, 41-24.
Four of five underdogs covered. Two won outright as touchdown-plus dogs. The only favorite result was a push.
Underdogs don’t always win. But when public perception lags reality – when the market overvalues a team’s recent performance or undervalues a desperate opponent – the numbers create opportunities.
What It Means
The Texans and Ravens both fit classic contrarian profiles heading into Saturday. Houston had the league’s best defense and an eight-game winning streak, yet the line moved against them. Baltimore was fighting for its playoff life with a backup quarterback against a team that had nothing urgent to play for.
The public saw surface narratives. The results told a different story.
Week 17 continues today with 11 games on the Sunday slate. The psychological resistance to betting underdogs remains. So does the data suggesting that resistance creates value.