The Greatest Comeback in Seahawks History Paid Underdog Bettors
The Seattle Seahawks pulled off what may be the greatest comeback in franchise history on Thursday Night Football, rallying from a 30-14 fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Los Angeles Rams 38-37 in overtime. For contrarian bettors who backed Seattle as +1.5 home underdogs, the walk-off two-point conversion delivered a sweat-inducing but ultimately profitable finish.
The Seahawks were 0-172 all-time when trailing by 15 or more points in the fourth quarter. They made it 1-172 in the most dramatic fashion possible, erasing a 16-point deficit in less than eight minutes of game time before winning on a gutsy two-point conversion call in overtime.
How the Seahawks Underdog Win Unfolded
With 8:03 remaining and the Rams leading 30-14, the game appeared over. Matthew Stafford had thrown for 457 yards. Puka Nacua had 12 catches for 225 yards. The Rams had dominated between the 20s and seemingly put the game away when Kobie Turner intercepted Sam Darnold in the red zone.
Then everything changed. Rashid Shaheed returned a punt 58 yards for a touchdown, and Darnold connected with Cooper Kupp for the two-point conversion to make it 30-22. After forcing another Rams three-and-out, Darnold hit A.J. Barner for a 26-yard touchdown.
The craziest play came on the ensuing two-point conversion attempt. Darnold’s pass appeared to be deflected incomplete by Jared Verse. But replay showed the ball had actually traveled backward, making it a fumble. Zach Charbonnet had casually picked up the loose ball in the end zone before any whistle blew. After review: two points Seattle. Game tied at 30.
The Walk-Off That Crushed the Favorite
The Rams nearly escaped when Stafford hit Nacua for a 41-yard overtime touchdown. Up 37-30 with Seattle needing a touchdown plus a successful two-point conversion just to tie, Los Angeles appeared destined to clinch the NFC West.
Darnold had other ideas. He drove Seattle inside the 5-yard line and found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the touchdown. Rather than kick the extra point and extend the game, Mike Macdonald went for the win.
Darnold rolled right and hit tight end Eric Saubert, who had zero catches all game, for the game-winning two-point conversion. Seattle 38, Los Angeles 37. The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot and took sole possession of first place in the NFC West.
What the Betting Market Got Wrong
The Rams opened as 1.5-point road favorites, a line that reflected their dominant 21-19 Week 11 win over Seattle where Darnold threw four interceptions. The line moved to Seahawks -1.5 by kickoff, but sharps who grabbed Seattle early at +1.5 collected on one of the wildest covers of the season.
The trends overwhelmingly favored Los Angeles. The Rams were 17-3 ATS in their last 20 December games. They were 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Seattle. They were 5-0 ATS in their last five games at Lumen Field. Every historical indicator pointed to the Rams, per Covers betting trends.
But trends don’t account for punt return touchdowns, bizarre fumble-recovery two-point conversions, and a coach willing to go for the win in overtime rather than play for a tie.
The Contrarian Lesson From Seattle
This game reinforces a core principle of contrarian betting: when historical trends become overwhelming, the market often overweights them. The Rams’ December dominance and head-to-head success against Seattle were well-documented entering Thursday. That documentation moved money to Los Angeles.
What the trends didn’t capture was Seattle’s four-game winning streak, their home-field advantage where they had won four straight by an average of 14.5 points, and the desperation of a team needing this game to control their playoff destiny.
The Seahawks now sit at 12-3, alone atop the NFC West. The Rams fall to 11-4 and face a potential wild card road in the playoffs if they can’t catch Seattle over the final two weeks. For bettors who backed the home underdog, the payout was sweeter than any trend could predict.
Thursday Night Football Underdog Trends Continue
Seattle’s win extends a profitable 2025 trend for Thursday Night Football underdogs. Home dogs on short weeks have repeatedly delivered value this season when public money flows to the more rested, higher-profile opponent.
The Seahawks fit that profile perfectly. Despite identical 11-3 records entering the game, Seattle was getting points at home in a division title matchup. The market’s respect for the Rams’ recent dominance created value on the other side.
Key Numbers From the Historic Comeback
Final Score: Seahawks 38, Rams 37 (OT)
Spread: Seahawks +1.5 (opened) / Seahawks -1.5 (closed)
Key Stats:
- Seahawks trailed 30-14 with 8:03 remaining in the 4th quarter
- Seattle was 0-172 all-time when trailing by 15+ in the 4th quarter
- Seahawks went 3-for-3 on two-point conversions
- Stafford: 457 passing yards, 3 TDs (3rd-most yards of his career)
- Nacua: 12 catches, 225 yards, 2 TDs
- Rams total offense: 581 yards, zero turnovers – and still lost
The Seahawks move to 12-3 and control their destiny for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Rams fall to 11-4 and need help to win the division. And contrarian bettors who backed Seattle against the trends walk away with a win they will remember for a long time.