The Texans upset the Chiefs 20-10 on Sunday Night Football, and bettors who backed Houston cashed in. The Texans closed as 3.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium against the three-time defending AFC champions. They won outright, paying around +160 on the moneyline.
For anyone following fade the public principles, this result fit a familiar pattern. The Chiefs were heavy public favorites at home. The line moved toward Kansas City throughout the week. And the underdog won outright.
What the Texans Upset Chiefs Betting Line Showed
Kansas City opened as 5-point favorites and closed between -3.5 and -4.5 depending on the book. The moneyline settled around -180 to -192 for the Chiefs, with Houston available at +150 to +175.
Public betting percentages reportedly showed the majority of bets on Kansas City. The Chiefs were 0-4 against the spread in their previous four games, but that hadn’t stopped the public from backing them at home against a Houston team riding a four-game winning streak.
The game opened with a total of 43 and closed around 41.5. The under hit comfortably with a final score of 20-10.
How Houston’s Defense Controlled the Game
The Texans entered the game with the NFL’s top-ranked defense in both points allowed (16.5 per game) and total yards (265.7 per game), according to NFL.com. They lived up to that billing on Sunday night.
Mahomes finished 14 of 33 for 160 yards with three interceptions and zero touchdowns. At one point in the second half, he threw 10 consecutive incompletions, a career-worst streak. His passer rating of 19.8 was the lowest of his career.
Jalen Pitre, Kamari Lassiter, and Azeez Al-Shaair each recorded interceptions. The final pick came off a Travis Kelce bobble with under four minutes remaining, effectively ending any comeback hopes.
Kansas City’s receivers dropped six passes, the most in any game during Mahomes’ tenure as a starter. The Chiefs also failed on two fourth-down attempts in their own territory during the fourth quarter, giving Houston short fields that led to the go-ahead touchdown.
Why Contrarian Bettors Saw Value
Several factors aligned to create value on the Texans:
The Chiefs entered with a 1-7 record against the spread versus teams with winning records this season. Despite their dynasty pedigree, this wasn’t the same Kansas City team that won three straight AFC titles. They were 6-6, had lost three of their last four, and their offensive line was decimated by injuries.
Houston’s defense had already proven it could handle elite quarterbacks. Before Sunday, the Texans had faced Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold. They held all of them in check.
Public perception, however, still treated Kansas City as the dominant force it had been for years. That gap between perception and current reality is where contrarian value often lives.
The Playoff Implications
The loss dropped Kansas City to 6-7. According to multiple projection models, the Chiefs now have roughly a 16% chance to make the playoffs. This would be their first postseason miss since 2014.
Houston improved to 8-5 and sits one game behind Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Texans have won six of their last seven games after starting the season 2-4.
What This Means for Contrarian Bettors
One game proves nothing. Variance is real, and underdogs lose more often than they win. But this result illustrates a core principle of contrarian betting: public perception often lags behind current performance.
The Chiefs’ name still carries weight. Their history still draws public money. But the 2025 Chiefs are not the 2023 or 2024 Chiefs. Recognizing that gap, and finding spots where the line hasn’t fully adjusted, is where value emerges.
The Texans covered. They won outright. And bettors who faded the public dynasty on a short week at home got paid.