Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results
Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each.
The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily as 2.5-point favorites, but the margin of victory told only part of the story. San Francisco’s high-powered offense managed just 173 total yards and three points against a defense that allowed one first down in the opening quarter.
In Tampa, the Buccaneers avoided elimination with a 16-14 win over Carolina. But the spread told a different story. Tampa closed as 2.5-point favorites and won by two. Panthers bettors cashed their tickets.
The 49ers Collapse
San Francisco entered Saturday on a six-game winning streak, averaging 42.3 points per game in December. Brock Purdy had thrown 11 touchdowns with a 131.5 passer rating over the previous three games. The 49ers looked like the NFC’s most dangerous team.
Seattle’s defense had other plans. Purdy finished 19-of-27 for just 127 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Christian McCaffrey, the league’s most versatile back, managed 23 rushing yards on eight carries. The 49ers’ 173 total yards were their fewest in any regular-season game under Kyle Shanahan.
Zach Charbonnet’s 27-yard touchdown run in the first quarter was all the scoring Seattle needed. Kenneth Walker III added 97 rushing yards as the Seahawks controlled the clock and suffocated San Francisco’s offense.
The under hit comfortably. The total sat at 47.5. The final score: 16 combined points.
Tampa Bay’s ATS Streak Continues
The Buccaneers’ win looked good in the standings. In the betting market, it extended an ugly pattern.
Tampa has now failed to cover in nine consecutive games. At 5-12 ATS on the season, the Bucs remain the worst covering team in the NFL. Even when they win, they find ways to give bettors heartburn.
Saturday’s script followed the familiar template. Tampa led 13-7 at halftime after Bryce Young connected with Tommy Tremble to cut into an early deficit. Baker Mayfield threw another interception, his ninth in the last eight games. Chase McLaughlin’s field goals provided the margin, but a blocked 38-yard attempt kept Carolina within striking distance.
Young’s 8-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker with 2:27 remaining made it 16-14. The Panthers got the ball back at their own 3-yard line with 18 seconds left. No comeback materialized, but the fade the public angle on Tampa proved correct again.
NFC South Chaos
Here’s where Saturday’s results get strange. The NFC South champion will be crowned today, and both teams that can win it already finished their regular seasons.
The Buccaneers need the Saints to beat or tie the Falcons to clinch their fifth straight division title. If Atlanta wins, the Panthers take the NFC South despite losing on Saturday.
Two eliminated teams will decide which 8-9 team makes the playoffs. The winner goes home. The loser determines who advances.
Tonight: AFC North Title Game
Sunday Night Football brings the final division title game of the weekend. The Ravens visit the Steelers with everything at stake. Winner takes the AFC North and the No. 4 seed. Loser’s season ends.
Baltimore opened at -3.5 and has held steady. Lamar Jackson returns after missing Week 17 with a back injury. Derrick Henry, who rushed for 216 yards and four touchdowns against Green Bay last week, faces a Pittsburgh defense that just got pushed around by Cleveland.
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 18 years. But the Steelers have lost three straight, including last week’s collapse against the Browns where Russell Wilson failed on three consecutive end-zone throws in the final minute.
The contrarian case for Pittsburgh exists. Home underdogs in elimination games tend to fight. Tomlin’s teams show up when it matters most. But the Ravens are healthy, Henry is rolling, and Baltimore has won its last two games without Jackson.
Saturday’s Takeaway
The 49ers reminded everyone that hot streaks don’t guarantee results. Six straight wins. Dominant offensive numbers. None of it mattered against a Seattle defense that executed its game plan flawlessly.
Tampa Bay reminded everyone that backing the worst ATS team in football remains a losing proposition, even when they win outright.
The underdog philosophy isn’t about blindly backing plus numbers. It’s about identifying spots where the market has overcorrected. Saturday offered one of each: a home underdog that got exposed and a road underdog that covered despite the loss.
Sunday’s slate will fill in the rest of the playoff picture. By tonight, we’ll know who’s in, who’s out, and which contrarian angles paid off.