The Tomlin Special Delivers Again
Week 18 Sunday ended exactly how contrarian bettors dream: with a missed field goal, a home underdog winning outright, and Mike Tomlin adding another line to his legendary resume. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 to claim the AFC North title, covering as 3.5-point underdogs and extending one of the most remarkable trends in NFL betting history.
This was Tomlin’s specialty. His record as a home underdog since 2000 now stands at 25-9-3 against the spread. No other active coach comes close.
How Pittsburgh Pulled It Off
The Steelers trailed 24-20 with under a minute remaining. Aaron Rodgers, who finished with 294 passing yards, found Calvin Austin III for a 26-yard touchdown with 55 seconds left. Kicker Chris Boswell then missed the extra point, leaving Pittsburgh up just 26-24 and giving Baltimore a chance to win with a field goal.
Lamar Jackson delivered. He hit Isaiah Likely for a 26-yard gain on fourth-and-10 to put the Ravens in range. But rookie kicker Tyler Loop pushed his 44-yard attempt wide right as time expired. Pittsburgh stormed the field. Baltimore’s season ended in the cruelest possible way.
The public had backed Baltimore heavily. The Ravens entered as the favorite, and most of the money sat on their side. The Steelers responded the way Tomlin teams always seem to respond when counted out at home. T.J. Watt’s third-quarter interception set up a go-ahead field goal. Derrick Henry ran for 126 yards but couldn’t carry the Ravens across the finish line.
Panthers Win the NFC South at 8-9
In one of the stranger playoff scenarios in recent memory, the Carolina Panthers clinched the NFC South despite losing their Week 18 game on Saturday. When the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints 19-17 on Sunday, it created a three-way tie at 8-9 between Carolina, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay.
The tiebreaker went to the Panthers based on their 3-1 record against the other two teams. It’s Carolina’s first division title since 2015. They’ll host the Rams in the Wild Card round – a team they already beat 31-28 back in Week 13.
This is what happens when the public betting trends chase last year’s favorites. Tampa Bay entered the season as the division favorite after winning four straight NFC South titles. The Bucs finished 5-12 against the spread, including an 0-9 ATS streak over their final nine games.
Other Underdog Results
The Steelers weren’t alone on Sunday. The Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17 as 7-point underdogs. The Eagles rested most of their starters with playoff positioning on the line, and it cost them the second seed. Philadelphia will now host the 49ers instead of the Packers in the Wild Card round.
The Cleveland Browns also delivered a walk-off win, beating the Cincinnati Bengals 20-18 on a 49-yard field goal as time expired. Both games ended on final-play field goals – fitting for a Week 18 that came down to the wire.
What Contrarian Bettors Can Take From This
The 2025 regular season ended the way it began: with favorites failing in spots where the public had piled on. The Steelers at home as underdogs. The Eagles laying a touchdown with backups. The Bucs unable to cover for two straight months.
Mike Tomlin’s home underdog record isn’t a coincidence. It reflects something deeper about how his teams respond to low expectations. That pattern has held for nearly two decades. The fade the public approach found value in Pittsburgh all season, and it delivered in the biggest spot of the year.
The playoffs begin Saturday. The data suggests more value lies ahead for those willing to go against the crowd, though variance remains part of the equation. The Steelers will host Houston as slight favorites. Carolina gets the Rams at home. And somewhere, a contrarian bettor is already looking for the next spot where public perception has created opportunity.
That’s the underdog betting philosophy at work. It doesn’t always win. But when it does, it tends to win in memorable fashion.