Historic Home Underdog Headlines Championship Weekend
The Conference Championship round presents a rare betting landscape. In the AFC, the top-seeded Denver Broncos find themselves as the largest home underdog in a conference title game since the 1970 NFL merger. In the NFC, two division rivals meet for the third time this season with the road team getting points in a game likely decided by a single score.
Both underdogs carry compelling contrarian angles worth examining before Sunday’s action.
Broncos Make History as Home Dogs
The Denver Broncos opened as 4.5-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots. That line quickly moved to +5.5, making Denver the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since the merger. The last time any team was a home underdog in this round was 2015, when the Broncos themselves were +3 against the Patriots. Peyton Manning’s squad won that game 20-18 en route to Super Bowl 50.
The reason for the massive line adjustment is obvious. Starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending broken ankle in overtime of Denver’s divisional win over Buffalo. Backup Jarrett Stidham will make his first start since the 2023 season. He’s 1-3 in four career starts.
There’s an ironic wrinkle: Stidham was drafted by New England in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He’ll face the franchise that once viewed him as a potential successor to Tom Brady. The Patriots considered re-signing him this past offseason before going with Joshua Dobbs as Drake Maye’s backup.
Despite the quarterback downgrade, Denver’s situation contains contrarian elements worth noting. The Broncos finished 9-1 at home during the regular season and went 4-1 as underdogs this year. Their defense led the NFL with 68 sacks and forced five turnovers against Josh Allen in the divisional round. If they can generate similar pressure against Maye, the spread may prove too wide.
History offers a small sample of hope. Home underdogs don’t appear often in conference championship games precisely because they’re rare. But when they do, the public tends to overreact to narrative and pile on the road favorite.
Rams-Seahawks Trilogy Reaches Its Climax
The NFC Championship presents a different contrarian scenario. The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point favorites in their third meeting of the season.
The first two games couldn’t have been more evenly matched. Los Angeles won 21-19 at home in Week 11, surviving a missed 61-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer. Seattle answered with a 38-37 overtime victory at Lumen Field in Week 16, erasing a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit.
Combined margin in two games: three points. Total yardage in those contests was nearly identical, with the losing team outgaining the winner in both matchups.
When divisional rivals meet for a third time in the playoffs, historical data suggests the underdog tends to find value. According to one analysis, underdogs in playoff divisional trilogies since 2000 have covered at approximately a 57% rate despite going just 17-26 straight up. The familiarity works both ways. Both coaching staffs have extensive tape on each other’s tendencies.
The Rams enter as road underdogs despite having the NFL’s highest-scoring offense during the regular season at 30.5 points per game. Matthew Stafford has been playing at an MVP level, though his efficiency dropped in the snowy Chicago conditions during the divisional round. Seattle counters with the league’s best scoring defense at 17.2 points allowed per game.
Quarterback Sam Darnold played through an oblique injury in Seattle’s 41-6 demolition of San Francisco and could still be managing the issue. If the Seahawks lean more heavily on the run game, it may keep this one closer than the betting public expects.
Where the Public Money Will Flow
The betting patterns for Championship Sunday are predictable. The Patriots represent an easy narrative: Maye over Stidham, road warriors on an 8-0 away record, facing a backup quarterback in a conference title game. Public money will flood toward New England, likely pushing that line even higher by kickoff.
In the NFC, Seattle’s 41-6 blowout of San Francisco creates recency bias. The public saw a dominant home team and will assume that translates against Los Angeles. But the Seahawks beat a banged-up 49ers team 13-3 in Week 18 before demolishing them again in the divisional round, while the Rams and Seahawks know each other intimately after two games decided by a combined three points.
The contrarian position recognizes that heavily-backed favorites in the playoffs often disappoint. When the public agrees overwhelmingly on an outcome, the market has usually already adjusted. Finding value sometimes means swimming against the current.
Conference Championship Betting Landscape
The opening lines tell an interesting story about market perception:
AFC Championship (3 PM ET, CBS)
Patriots -5.5 at Broncos | Total: 41.5
NFC Championship (6:30 PM ET, FOX)
Rams +2.5 at Seahawks | Total: 47.5
Denver’s total dropped from a look-ahead line of 45.5 before the Nix injury to 41.5, reflecting expectations of a lower-scoring affair with Stidham at the helm. The NFC total of 47.5 acknowledges two prolific offenses, though both previous meetings saw significant variance from the posted number.
Contrarian bettors don’t automatically take every underdog. They recognize situations where public sentiment creates market inefficiencies. A #1 seed at +5.5 in a conference championship, regardless of circumstance, represents unusual value. A road underdog in a rivalry trilogy where both games were one-score affairs deserves consideration at +2.5.
Whether either underdog wins outright remains uncertain. But covering a spread requires only staying close, and both Denver’s defense and Los Angeles’s offense have the talent to keep these games competitive.
The psychology of underdog betting always feels uncomfortable. Backing Jarrett Stidham in a conference championship seems irrational. Taking the Rams after Seattle dominated the 49ers seems like chasing the wrong result. That discomfort is precisely what creates value when the public overreacts.