Seven-Point Underdogs Win Outright
The Atlanta Falcons entered Monday Night Football with nothing to play for. Eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago. A 6-9 record. Playing a Rams team that had already clinched a postseason berth and was jockeying for seeding.
The betting public saw a mismatch. By game time, over 80% of spread bets had landed on the Rams at -7. Matthew Stafford was the MVP favorite. Los Angeles led the NFL in scoring. This was supposed to be a comfortable cover.
Final score: Falcons 27, Rams 24. The seven-point underdog won outright.
Bijan Robinson’s Historic Night
Bijan Robinson made the Rams defense look lost. He finished with career highs of 195 rushing yards and 229 yards from scrimmage. Both touchdowns came in the first half as Atlanta built a 21-0 lead.
The signature play came with 1:23 left before halftime. Robinson took a handoff from his own 7-yard line, cut back against the grain, and outran everyone for a 93-yard touchdown. It was the longest rushing touchdown in Falcons franchise history, breaking a record that had stood since Patrick Dunn’s 90-yard run in October 2006.
Robinson also broke Christian McCaffrey’s NFL record for most yards from scrimmage before turning 24. He now has 2,255 scrimmage yards this season, more than any other player under 24 in league history.
Stafford’s MVP Case Takes a Hit
Matthew Stafford entered the game as the heavy favorite to win MVP. He left with three interceptions, more than he had thrown in his previous 15 games combined.
Jessie Bates picked off a second-quarter pass and returned it 34 yards for a touchdown, giving the Falcons a 14-0 lead. It was the 32nd pick-six of Stafford’s career, tying Brett Favre for the most in NFL history. Rookie safety Xavier Watts added two more interceptions, including one that set up Robinson’s 93-yard touchdown.
Stafford finished 22-of-38 for 269 yards with two touchdowns. The yardage looks respectable. The three turnovers do not.
The Collapse That Almost Happened
Atlanta did not make this easy. The Falcons led 21-0 at halftime and 24-10 in the third quarter. Then they nearly gave it all away.
Jared Verse blocked a Zane Gonzalez field goal attempt and returned it 76 yards for a touchdown, cutting the lead to 24-17. The Rams scored again on an 11-yard Puka Nacua reception with 2:46 remaining to tie it at 24. A fade the public bet was suddenly sweating.
But Kirk Cousins led a nine-play, 32-yard drive that put Gonzalez in position for a 51-yard attempt. He drilled it with 21 seconds left. The underdog had survived its own collapse.
Week 17’s Underdog Streak Ends at Six
Monday’s result capped off a remarkable run for underdogs across Week 17. Six consecutive games saw the underdog win outright:
Saturday: Texans +1.5 beat Chargers 20-16. Ravens +3 beat Packers 41-24.
Sunday: Browns +3.5 beat Steelers 13-6. Eagles +3 beat Bills 13-12. Dolphins +5.5 beat Buccaneers 20-17.
Monday: Falcons +7 beat Rams 27-24.
The combined margin across those six games was more than 30 points in favor of the underdogs. Public money chased the favorites in nearly every matchup. The favorites lost every time.
What It Means for Bettors
One week does not make a system. Six straight outright underdog wins is notable, but small samples can mislead. That said, the pattern is familiar: heavily bet favorites in December games, teams with playoff positioning already secured, situations where motivation gaps exist.
The Rams had nothing to gain from a dominant performance. The Falcons had young players auditioning for their futures. Robinson ran like his career depended on it. That difference showed up on the scoreboard. Understanding why underdogs feel wrong is often the first step toward betting them.
Week 18 brings more scenarios where public money will flow toward favorites. Bettors may find that what happened in Week 17 is instructive.