Jacksonville entered Week 16 with the longest active cover streak in the NFL at 5-0 ATS. They had won five straight games outright, outscoring opponents 171-72 during that stretch. Trevor Lawrence was playing the best football of his career with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last four games.
The Jaguars were still 3.5-point underdogs at Denver.
They won 34-20. It wasn’t close.
Why the Market Undervalued Jacksonville
The Broncos entered with an 11-game winning streak and the NFL’s best record at 12-2. They had home-field advantage at Mile High. The public saw a clear favorite.
But the Jaguars market perception lagged their actual performance by weeks. According to OddsShark pregame trends, Jacksonville was 5-0 ATS in their last five games and ranked 10th in offensive EPA per play during that stretch. Their defense led the league in EPA allowed over the same span.
The numbers said Jacksonville was elite. The line said they were underdogs. That gap is where contrarian value lives.
The “Small Market” Factor
After the game, head coach Liam Coen delivered a pointed comment: “Great team win. Just thankful that a small-market team like ours can come into a place like Mile High and get it done.”
The sarcasm was earned. Jacksonville has been dismissed for years despite moments of clear competence. Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and has frequently played well, but the franchise lacks the national profile that moves betting lines.
Denver, meanwhile, benefits from the opposite effect. Sean Payton’s reputation, Bo Nix’s breakout season, and the team’s winning streak created a narrative that the market priced in. The Broncos were 6-8 ATS despite being 12-2 straight up. They won games, but not by enough to cover inflated spreads.
What the ATS Records Told Us
The pregame data was clear for anyone paying attention:
Jacksonville: 9-5 ATS on the season, 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Denver: 6-8 ATS on the season, 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 16 games historically.
The Jaguars were covering because they were better than the market believed. The Broncos were failing to cover because they were worse than the market priced. This is exactly what public betting trends analysis is designed to identify.
Lawrence’s Breakout and the Timing Question
Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards with three touchdowns and ran for another. He has 26 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns this season, both career highs. Parker Washington caught 6 passes for 145 yards.
The Jaguars are now 11-4 and lead the AFC South. They’re one game behind Denver for the top seed in the AFC.
And yet the psychology of betting means that many bettors will still hesitate to back them next week. “They can’t keep this up,” the thinking goes. “Denver was due for a loss.”
Maybe. But Jacksonville has covered in six straight now. At some point, the market has to adjust.
The Contrarian Lesson
The Jaguars-Broncos game illustrates a core contrarian principle: perception changes slower than reality.
Jacksonville had been excellent for over a month. The market knew this. But the Broncos’ brand, their winning streak, and their home-field advantage created enough public confidence to keep Jacksonville as an underdog.
None of this means you should blindly back every hot team. But when a team’s ATS record diverges sharply from their straight-up record – covering at a 70%+ clip over five games while the market still prices them as underdogs – pay attention. The market is saying: we don’t believe them yet.
Sometimes that skepticism is warranted. Sometimes it isn’t. In Week 16, the Jaguars made the skeptics pay.