Part 7 of 7 in the Playoff Underdogs series
Kenneth Walker III entered Super Bowl LX as the fourth choice to win MVP. Sam Darnold was the favorite at +115. Drake Maye sat at +230. Jaxon Smith-Njigba drew +500 action. Walker? He was available at +850 at some books, the longest odds for any eventual Super Bowl MVP winner since Julian Edelman won it at +1000 in Super Bowl LIII.
The market had its reasons. Quarterbacks have won 12 of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs. The “running backs don’t matter” narrative has become gospel. Walker hadn’t scored in Seattle’s NFC Championship win. Why would he be the one to break through on the biggest stage?
He rushed for 135 yards on 27 carries, added 26 receiving yards, and became the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998. Twenty-eight years of waiting, ended by a player the betting market largely ignored.
The Market Missed the Matchup
Super Bowl LX was always going to be a defensive game. Seattle’s “Dark Side” defense led the NFL in points allowed. New England’s unit had surrendered just 8.7 points per game through three playoff rounds. Both teams ranked in the top three in yards per rush allowed during the regular season.
In that context, Walker represented the most reliable offensive weapon available. While Darnold finished 19-of-38 for 202 yards and Maye had just 60 passing yards through three quarters, Walker was the only consistent producer on the field.
By halftime, he had 94 rushing yards – the second-highest total in Super Bowl first-half history, trailing only Timmy Smith’s 131 yards in Super Bowl XXII. The live MVP odds had already flipped. Walker moved to +110 at DraftKings before the third quarter began.
Why the Public Overlooked Him
Three factors kept Walker’s pre-game odds suppressed:
First, the quarterback bias. MVP voters have overwhelmingly favored signal-callers in the modern era, and bettors follow that pattern. Darnold’s redemption narrative was too compelling. Maye’s second-year breakthrough demanded attention. The storylines pointed elsewhere.
Second, the “running backs don’t matter” conventional wisdom. Walker entered free agency after this game. The market had already decided his position was replaceable, fungible, not worth the investment. That same dismissiveness showed up in the MVP odds.
Third, recency bias. Walker scored four touchdowns across Seattle’s first two playoff games but was held out of the end zone against the Rams in the NFC Championship. One scoreless game reset the market’s expectations, even though his 22-touch workload remained unchanged.
What Walker Actually Did
The final stat line tells the story: 135 rushing yards on 27 carries, 26 receiving yards on 2 catches, 161 total scrimmage yards. He had a 49-yard touchdown run called back by a holding penalty in the fourth quarter. Without that flag, the margin of victory and the MVP vote would have been even more decisive.
Walker’s 135 rushing yards were the most in a Super Bowl since Davis ran for 157 in the Broncos’ upset of the Packers. His back-to-back runs of 29 and 30 yards in the first half made him the first player in Super Bowl history with two 20-plus yard rushes on the same drive.
The Seahawks controlled the clock for over 33 minutes. They didn’t need explosive passing. They needed someone to grind out yards against a Patriots defense that had dominated all postseason. Walker delivered exactly that.
The Contrarian Lesson
This entire series has tracked where the public got it wrong in the 2026 playoffs. Underdogs finished 5-8 ATS overall, well below the historical 67% cover rate that defined past postseasons. The contrarian thesis took hits.
But Walker’s MVP represents a different kind of contrarian value – the overlooked player prop. While bettors piled onto Darnold at +115 and debated whether Maye could engineer an upset, the player best suited for a low-scoring defensive game sat at +850.
Value hides where the public refuses to look. That’s been the theme of LoserWins.com since day one. Sometimes it shows up in point spreads where casual money inflates favorites. Sometimes it shows up in MVP markets where narrative overwhelms matchup analysis.
Walker wasn’t a sexy pick. He wasn’t going to generate social media buzz or fill highlight reels with touchdown passes. He was simply the most reliable offensive weapon in a game that rewarded reliability over explosiveness.
The market missed it. The voters didn’t.
Series Conclusion
The 2026 NFL playoffs delivered variance. Wild Card Weekend saw underdogs go 4-2 ATS. The Divisional Round produced an unprecedented 0-4 sweep for favorites. Conference Championships split 1-1. The Super Bowl favorite covered comfortably.
The historical edge didn’t materialize this year. But one player, overlooked by the market, reminded everyone that value exists in places beyond the spread. Kenneth Walker III at +850 paid out at 9.5-to-1 for bettors who understood what the game would require.
Contrarian betting isn’t about blindly fading the public. It’s about finding the disconnect between perception and reality. In Super Bowl LX, that disconnect was a running back the market forgot to value.