NFL Week 13 was a bloodbath for favorites. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread, with seven winning outright. Moreover, the carnage started on Thanksgiving and didn’t stop until Monday night.
For bettors who follow fade the public principles, this was the kind of week that makes the strategy worth the grind. Public money piled onto favorites all week. However, the underdogs kept winning anyway.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday Sweep
All four underdogs won outright on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Remarkably, that hadn’t happened since the NFL expanded to three Thanksgiving games in 2006.
Green Bay (+3) beat Detroit 31-24 in the early game. Later that afternoon, Dallas (+3.5) stunned Kansas City 31-28. Cincinnati (+7) then demolished Baltimore 32-14 in prime time. Finally, on Black Friday, Chicago (+7) handled Philadelphia 24-15.
Four games. Four underdogs. Four outright wins. As a result, the betting public took a beating before the weekend even started.
Panthers Pull Off the Biggest Upset
Sunday’s headline belonged to Carolina. Specifically, the Panthers beat the Rams 31-28 as 10-point underdogs, snapping Los Angeles’ six-game winning streak.
Bryce Young completed 15 of 20 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Notably, two of those touchdowns came on fourth down, including a 43-yard strike to rookie Tetairoa McMillan that gave Carolina the lead with 6:34 remaining.
Matthew Stafford, who had thrown 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception, was picked off twice. Additionally, the Panthers forced a critical strip-sack by Derrick Brown with 2:25 left to seal the win.
According to ESPN, Carolina is now 7-0 straight up as an underdog this season. That’s the most by any team through November in the Super Bowl era.
Week 13 Underdog Results
Here’s the full picture of underdog performance in Week 13:
Thanksgiving and Black Friday (4-0 outright):
Green Bay +3 beat Detroit 31-24. Dallas +3.5 beat Kansas City 31-28. Cincinnati +7 beat Baltimore 32-14. Chicago +7 beat Philadelphia 24-15.
Sunday outright winners:
Carolina +10.5 beat Los Angeles 31-28. Houston +3.5 beat Indianapolis 20-16. New York Jets +3 beat Atlanta 27-24.
Consequently, the Panthers result was the second-largest upset of the 2025 season, trailing only Carolina’s own 13.5-point upset over Green Bay in Week 9.
Why Thanksgiving Week Favors Underdogs
Casual bettors flood the market during Thanksgiving week. They bet favorites. They bet big names. In other words, they bet the teams they’ve heard of.
Since 2020, favorites during Thanksgiving week are 53-24 straight up but just 36-39-2 against the spread. Therefore, that’s a 52% ATS win rate for underdogs in a week when public money is at its heaviest.
This pattern held again this year. Public money moved lines toward favorites all week. Nevertheless, the underdogs covered anyway, often by winning outright.
Survivor Pool Carnage
Circa Survivor, a high-stakes NFL survivor contest with an $18.7 million prize pool, saw historic elimination rates. In fact, the field dropped from 900 entries to 49 after the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games alone.
Three more entries fell on the Rams. By the end of Week 13, only 45 entries remained from the original 18,718.
Meanwhile, the inaugural Circa Grandissimo, a $100,000-entry version of the contest, ended entirely on Black Friday. All six remaining entries were split evenly between Baltimore and Philadelphia. Both teams lost. Consequently, six people became millionaires by accident.
What Contrarian Bettors Can Learn
One week doesn’t make a system. Underdogs won’t dominate like this every week. However, Week 13 illustrated several principles that contrarian bettors understand.
Public money inflates lines on popular teams. Furthermore, the more casual bettors in the market, the more value shifts to the other side. When perception lags reality, as it did with Kansas City and Los Angeles this week, the underdogs find edges.
Thanksgiving week brought the public out in force. In the end, the underdogs made them pay.