NFL Week 16 Underdog Results: Steelers, Titans, Panthers Cash
NFL Week 16 underdog betting delivered three notable winners on Sunday, headlined by the Steelers’ outright upset of the Lions in Detroit. Contrarian bettors who backed underdogs against public-heavy favorites found value across the board.
Here’s a breakdown of the underdog results that mattered most.
Steelers 29, Lions 24: The Biggest Win
The Pittsburgh Steelers entered Ford Field as 7-point underdogs against a Lions team that leads the league in scoring. They left with an outright victory.
Detroit’s offense, averaging 30.6 points per game and even higher at home, managed just 24 against a Steelers defense that had been criticized for giving up rushing yards in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh running back Jaylen Warren rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, exposing a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in points allowed.
The game ended with controversy. Amon-Ra St. Brown appeared to score a go-ahead touchdown in the final seconds, but offensive pass interference nullified the play. On fourth down, St. Brown caught another pass at the goal line but couldn’t cross the plane.
For bettors, the circumstances of the cover matter less than the result. The Steelers paid +260 on the moneyline at most books. Anyone who recognized that Detroit’s home favorite status was inflated by public perception walked away with a significant payout.
Titans 26, Chiefs 9: Public Money Burned
Tennessee snapped an 11-game home losing streak by dominating a Kansas City team that has now lost four straight.
The line told a story before kickoff. This game opened with the Chiefs as 11.5-point favorites. By game day, that number had collapsed to 3.5. Sharp money saw what the public didn’t: a Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes, already eliminated from the playoffs, facing a Titans squad with nothing to lose.
Cam Ward threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Titans defense held Kansas City to nine points, the lowest total for a Chiefs team since 2021.
The line movement here was textbook. When a spread drops eight points in a week, it reflects informed money hammering one side. Bettors who follow line movement patterns had every reason to take Tennessee plus the points, and those who took the moneyline at +150 were rewarded even more.
Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20: Division Takeover
Carolina entered as a 2.5-point home underdog against Tampa Bay, a team that had won five straight against the Panthers. They left in first place in the NFC South.
The Buccaneers have been in freefall, going 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread over their last six games. That trend is exactly the kind of data point that fade the public bettors look for. Name recognition and recent history favored Tampa. Current form favored Carolina.
Bryce Young, written off by many earlier this season, has led the Panthers to an 8-7 record. Since reclaiming the starting job, Carolina has gone 8-1 against the spread as a home underdog according to OddsShark trends data. That’s not a fluke. It reflects a team that consistently outperforms expectations when the public counts them out.
What the Results Tell Us
Three underdogs won outright. Three favorites failed to cover. Public money lost.
The common thread in each game: the favorite carried baggage that inflated their line. Detroit was the league’s top-scoring offense. Kansas City was still being treated like a contender despite losing Mahomes. Tampa Bay had dominated the series history.
Sharp bettors don’t care about reputation. They care about current value. And in Week 16, the value sat with underdogs across the board.
The Contrarian Takeaway
Sunday’s results reinforced a principle that drives contrarian betting philosophy: public perception lags reality. The Lions aren’t the unbeatable home juggernaut their point total suggests. The Chiefs without Mahomes aren’t a three-point favorite over anyone. The Buccaneers’ five-game winning streak against Carolina didn’t account for their current collapse.
The betting market eventually corrects these gaps. Sometimes the correction happens before kickoff through line movement. Sometimes it happens after the final whistle. Either way, bettors who recognize the disconnect between perception and reality have an edge.
Week 16 was a reminder of why.