From Favored to Underdog in Six Weeks
The Los Angeles Rams were favored in both regular season meetings against the Seattle Seahawks. In Week 11, they won 21-19 as home favorites at SoFi Stadium. In Week 16, they were road favorites in Seattle and led 30-14 in the fourth quarter before losing 38-37 in overtime.
Now, for the NFC Championship rubber match on Sunday, the Rams are +2.5 road underdogs. The perception shift has been dramatic, and it raises a question contrarian bettors should consider: did the market overcorrect?
Three Points Separated These Teams
The two regular season meetings were decided by a combined three points. Week 11 ended 21-19 when Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer. Week 16 required overtime, a punt return touchdown, and one of the wildest two-point conversions in league history for Seattle to escape with a 38-37 victory.
Neither game suggested a gap between these teams. Yet the betting market now implies there is one. The Seahawks moved from slight home underdogs in Week 11 (when hosting the team that would beat them) to -2.5 favorites in the Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Rams flipped from road favorites who nearly won in Seattle to road underdogs getting points.
What Changed the Market’s Mind
The divergence makes sense on the surface. After Week 16, the Rams went 3-3 down the stretch, losing to the Falcons and finishing the regular season without clinching the division. Their playoff path has been rocky: a 34-31 escape against Carolina in the Wild Card round and a 20-17 overtime grind in Chicago during the Divisional Round.
Seattle, meanwhile, has won eight straight. The Seahawks demolished the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round and enter with extra rest as the NFC’s top seed. Their defense ranks first in EPA per play allowed, and they’re 13-5 against the spread this season.
These factors explain the shift. The question is whether they justify it.
The Case for the Underdog
The Rams have championship pedigree that this line may be discounting. Sean McVay is 10-5 in playoff games, including 5-3 ATS with Matthew Stafford as his quarterback. The Rams have covered in 15 of their last 22 games overall. Stafford remains the MVP favorite and has been to this round before, winning Super Bowl LVI four seasons ago.
Home-field advantage in playoff rematches between division rivals tends to be diminished. These teams know each other. They’ve seen each other’s schemes, adjustments, and tendencies. The familiarity cuts both ways, but it theoretically reduces Seattle’s structural edge at Lumen Field.
In the Week 16 loss, the Rams generated 581 total yards in Seattle. Puka Nacua caught 12 passes for 225 yards. Stafford threw for 457 yards. The Seattle defense that dominated San Francisco last week allowed the Rams to move the ball at will just five weeks ago.
Historical Context on Third Meetings
When division rivals meet for the third time in a season, the patterns get murky. Road underdogs in these situations have historically been profitable in the Divisional Round and earlier, going 8-4 ATS. However, in Conference Championship games specifically, home favorites in divisional rematches are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread.
The sample size is tiny, and historical trends should be weighted accordingly. But the data at least suggests that Championship Round home favorites in rubber matches have held their ground.
What the Line Says
At -2.5, the Seahawks are being asked to win by a field goal to cover. The moneyline sits around -155, implying roughly a 61% win probability. The Rams at +130 carry an implied 43% chance.
For a matchup decided by three total points across two games, that spread feels thin. If you believe the market is right, Seattle’s defense and home-field advantage are worth more than any familiarity discount. If you believe the market overcorrected to recency bias, the Rams at +2.5 represent a contrarian opportunity.
The Takeaway
The Rams’ journey from favored in both regular season games to underdog in the Championship Game reflects how quickly perception can shift. A blown 16-point lead, a late-season slide, and two close playoff wins changed how the market views them relative to Seattle.
Whether that shift is justified or overdone will be answered Sunday. But when the same two teams produce one-point and overtime outcomes in their first two meetings, a 2.5-point spread in the third meeting asks bettors to believe something fundamental has changed. The psychology of backing underdogs often involves questioning whether market movements reflect real information or simply crowd sentiment catching up to recent results.
The Rams have been here before. So has Stafford. At +2.5, the market is betting they can’t do it again. That’s precisely when contrarian value tends to emerge.