Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each. The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily … Read more
Three Divisions on the Line Week 18 brings something rare: three games where the winner takes the division and the loser goes home. The NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. For contrarian bettors, the setup offers interesting angles that cut against public perception. The betting market has spoken … Read more
The Buccaneers Are Still Favored Tampa Bay has failed to cover a spread in eight consecutive games. They started the season 6-2. They’re now 7-9. Their collapse has been one of the most thorough in recent NFL history. And on Saturday, when they host the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title, the Buccaneers are … Read more
Seven-Point Underdogs Win Outright The Atlanta Falcons entered Monday Night Football with nothing to play for. Eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago. A 6-9 record. Playing a Rams team that had already clinched a postseason berth and was jockeying for seeding. The betting public saw a mismatch. By game time, over 80% of spread bets … Read more
Five Underdogs, Five Outright Winners Week 17 underdogs didn’t just cover. They dominated. From Saturday through Sunday, five underdogs won outright, and the margins weren’t close. Here’s what happened: Texans +1.5 at Chargers: Won 20-16. Houston led 14-0 in the first quarter and never trailed. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdown passes in the opening frame … Read more
Saturday’s NFL doubleheader produced something contrarian bettors rarely see: both underdogs won outright. The Texans beat the Chargers 20-16 as +1.5 road dogs. The Ravens crushed the Packers 41-24 as +3 to +4.5 underdogs. Two games, two outright underdog victories, two covers by double digits when you factor in the spread. Combined with Christmas Day’s … Read more
Tampa Bay started the season 6-2. They were getting serious NFC contender buzz. Baker Mayfield looked like a late-career revelation. The offense was rolling. The four-time NFC South champions appeared ready for another division title run. That was two months ago. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 1-6. More striking: they’re 0-7 against the spread … Read more
The Texans Are Getting Plus Money. Read That Again. Houston enters Saturday’s game at Los Angeles riding a seven-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NFL. The Texans have the league’s best defense in both total yards allowed (272.3 per game) and scoring (16.6 points per game). They’ve held opponents to 21 points … Read more
The NFL’s Christmas Day slate featured three divisional matchups and two underdog covers. The Vikings won outright as 7.5-point underdogs against the Lions, while the Chiefs covered as 13-point home dogs against the Broncos. For contrarian bettors, it was a profitable holiday. Vikings 23, Lions 10: The Upset of the Day Minnesota entered as +7.5 … Read more
The Lions Were Super Bowl Favorites. Now They Need a Christmas Miracle. Detroit entered the 2025 season at +1200 to win the Super Bowl. Today, on Christmas, those odds sit at +12000. That’s a tenfold collapse in less than four months. The Lions play the Vikings this afternoon in a game they must win to … Read more