Five Underdogs, Five Outright Winners
Week 17 underdogs didn’t just cover. They dominated. From Saturday through Sunday, five underdogs won outright, and the margins weren’t close.
Here’s what happened:
Texans +1.5 at Chargers: Won 20-16. Houston led 14-0 in the first quarter and never trailed. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdown passes in the opening frame and the defense sacked Justin Herbert five times.
Ravens +3 at Packers: Won 41-24. Derrick Henry rushed for 216 yards and four touchdowns on a career-high 36 carries. Tyler Huntley started with Lamar Jackson out, and it didn’t matter. Baltimore outrushed Green Bay 307-79.
Browns +3.5 vs Steelers: Won 13-6. The 3-12 Browns beat the 9-6 Steelers, who needed a win to clinch the AFC North. Shedeur Sanders threw a 28-yard touchdown to Harold Fannin Jr. in the first quarter. That was the only touchdown of the game.
Eagles +3 at Bills: Won 13-12. Philadelphia led 13-0 entering the fourth quarter. Buffalo scored two late touchdowns but failed a two-point conversion with five seconds left. The Patriots clinched the AFC East as a result.
Dolphins +5.5 vs Buccaneers: Won 20-17. Rookie Quinn Ewers threw two touchdowns, including a 63-yarder to Theo Wease Jr. Tampa Bay’s collapse continues: they’re now 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.
The Browns Upset Tells the Story
Cleveland’s win over Pittsburgh deserves extra attention. The Steelers had won three straight. They were playing for a division title that would have been their first since 2020. Aaron Rodgers was supposed to carve up a 3-12 defense.
Instead, Rodgers went 21-for-39 for 168 yards with zero touchdowns. He was missing DK Metcalf to suspension and lost Darnell Washington to a broken arm in the first half. Pittsburgh’s offense couldn’t find the end zone all day.
The Steelers reached Cleveland’s 7-yard line with 29 seconds left. They couldn’t score. Denzel Ward broke up the final pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Cleveland walked away with the upset.
Now the Ravens and Steelers will play Week 18 for the division. Winner makes the playoffs. Loser goes home.
Tampa Bay’s Collapse Gets Worse
The Buccaneers were 6-2 in mid-October. They looked like NFC South favorites. Then the wheels fell off.
Since that 6-2 start, Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 straight up and 0-8 against the spread. They’ve lost as favorites of 3 or more points in four of those games. Baker Mayfield has thrown at least one interception in every game of the losing streak.
On Sunday, they laid 5.5 points against a Miami team starting a rookie quarterback making his second career start. They lost by three. The pattern isn’t subtle anymore.
The Week 17 Pattern
Combined with Christmas Day results (where the Vikings crushed the Lions as small underdogs), Week 17 has been a disaster for favorites. Public money flows to the popular teams, the names everyone recognizes, the perceived playoff contenders. But perception and reality often diverge.
The Steelers looked like the better team on paper. So did the Bills. So did the Chargers. Markets priced them accordingly. Then the games were played.
Five underdogs. Five outright wins. Combined margin of victory: 30 points. A sample size of one week proves nothing on its own, but it’s worth noting as we head into the final week of the regular season.