Saturday’s Results Followed the Script
Wild Card Saturday delivered exactly what the historical data suggested it might. Both home underdogs covered the spread, and one of them pulled off an outright upset that will be remembered for years.
The Panthers (+10.5) lost to the Rams 34-31 but stayed within a field goal despite being the largest home playoff underdog in NFL history. The Bears (+1.5) did one better, rallying from an 18-point halftime deficit to beat the Packers 31-27 in one of the greatest playoff comebacks ever.
For anyone tracking the home underdog trend in the playoffs, Saturday extended a remarkable pattern. Home underdogs of four or more points in the playoffs are now 10-0 ATS over the last 50 years after the Panthers covered.
Panthers Push Rams to the Final Seconds
Carolina entered as a double-digit underdog against an MVP-caliber quarterback and a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The Panthers trailed 14-0 early and looked headed for exactly the blowout the public expected.
Then Bryce Young and the Carolina offense found their footing. Young finished 21-of-40 for 264 yards and ran in a touchdown himself. Chuba Hubbard rushed for two scores. Jalen Coker caught nine passes for 134 yards and a touchdown, including a 7-yard score that gave Carolina a 31-27 lead with 2:39 remaining.
Matthew Stafford, the likely league MVP, needed to drive 71 yards in the final minutes. He went 6-of-7 on the drive and hit Colby Parkinson with a 19-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left. The Rams survived 34-31, but Carolina covered by a comfortable margin.
The Panthers had 70% of the public against them as massive underdogs. They proved, again, that playoff football compresses talent gaps and home crowds matter.
Bears Author Historic Comeback
The Bears were supposed to be the more competitive game, listed as just 1.5-point underdogs against a Packers team on a losing streak. Instead, Green Bay dominated early and looked like the team that would cruise.
Jordan Love threw touchdowns on the Packers’ first three possessions. Chicago trailed 21-3 at halftime and 21-6 entering the fourth quarter. The Bears’ 18-point halftime deficit was the largest in a home playoff game in franchise history.
What happened next was historic. Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, the largest fourth-quarter output in a playoff game this century. Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards total, with 184 of them coming in the final frame. DJ Moore caught the game-winning 25-yard touchdown with 1:43 left.
The Bears became just the fourth team in NFL history to win a playoff game after trailing by 15 or more points entering the fourth quarter. It was Chicago’s first playoff win since 2010, ending a 15-year drought.
What the Numbers Show
Saturday’s results reinforce what contrarian bettors have observed for decades. The public tends to overvalue favorites in high-profile spots, and the playoffs amplify this tendency.
Consider Saturday’s splits:
The Bears had 70% of public bets but won outright. The Panthers faced an overwhelming public position on the Rams and still covered by 7.5 points. Both home underdogs delivered value despite, or perhaps because of, the lopsided public sentiment against them.
Wild Card underdogs have now covered at roughly a 64% rate since 2017. Home underdogs in the playoffs continue to outperform expectations, particularly when the spread gets inflated by public money on popular favorites.
Sunday and Monday Still to Come
Four more Wild Card games remain. The Bills visit Jacksonville as road favorites Sunday afternoon. The 49ers travel to Philadelphia in a matchup where the Eagles opened as short favorites but have climbed to -5. The Chargers visit New England in the Sunday night slot. Monday brings Texans at Steelers, where Pittsburgh enters as a rare home underdog in prime time.
Saturday showed that historical patterns, however improbable they may seem in the moment, deserve attention. Home underdogs kept it close or won outright both times. The market expected blowouts and got competitive games decided in the final minute.
Whether the remaining games follow the same script remains to be seen. But Saturday delivered a reminder that playoff football rarely goes according to public expectations.