Wild Card Weekend Delivers Drama and Upsets
Five games into Wild Card Weekend, the pattern is clear: close games, late drama, and underdogs making noise. Heading into Monday’s finale between the Texans and Steelers, underdogs are 3-2 against the spread with two outright wins.
Saturday belonged to the home underdogs, who went 2-0 ATS with the Bears winning outright. Sunday added another layer to the story when the 49ers knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Philadelphia.
49ers Dethrone the Defending Champions
San Francisco entered Lincoln Financial Field as 4.5-point underdogs against the Eagles, who were chasing a chance to become the NFC’s first repeat champion in over 30 years. The 49ers won 23-19.
Brock Purdy threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns despite two interceptions. Christian McCaffrey caught both touchdown passes, including the game-winner with 2:54 remaining. The play that changed everything came on the first snap of the fourth quarter when wide receiver Jauan Jennings threw a 29-yard touchdown pass to McCaffrey on a trick play.
The Eagles offense stalled repeatedly. Jalen Hurts couldn’t connect on fourth-and-11 with 43 seconds left, and the 49ers defense sealed the upset. Philadelphia’s season ended with an offensive coordinator controversy brewing and questions about where their attack goes from here.
San Francisco advances to face Seattle in the Divisional Round. The NFC West now has three teams in the divisional round, only the second division in 25 years to accomplish that.
Bills Break 33-Year Road Playoff Drought
The Bills entered Jacksonville as just 1.5-point road favorites against a Jaguars team riding an 8-game winning streak. Buffalo won 27-24 in a game with four lead changes in the fourth quarter.
Josh Allen led a game-winning touchdown drive for the first time in his playoff career. He scored on a 1-yard run with one minute remaining after Trevor Lawrence’s late interception ended Jacksonville’s final threat. Allen finished with 306 total yards and three touchdowns.
For Buffalo, the win marked their first road playoff victory since January 1993. The Bills advance to face Denver in the Divisional Round, where Allen finally has a path to the Super Bowl that doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson.
The Jaguars, despite their hot streak, couldn’t overcome Allen when it mattered most. Lawrence threw three touchdowns but also two costly interceptions.
Patriots Defense Dominates
The final game Sunday was the only blowout of the weekend. New England throttled the Chargers 16-3 in a defensive masterpiece at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots held Justin Herbert to 159 passing yards and sacked him six times. Los Angeles managed just 207 total yards and went scoreless until a third-quarter field goal. It was the fewest points New England has allowed in a playoff game since their Super Bowl win over the Rams in 2018.
Drake Maye, in his playoff debut, threw for 268 yards and a touchdown while adding 67 rushing yards. His 28-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Henry in the fourth quarter broke the game open.
Herbert fell to 0-3 in playoff games. The Patriots, written off as rebuilding just last year, now host either the Texans or Steelers in the Divisional Round.
What the Numbers Show
Through five Wild Card games, underdogs are 3-2 ATS. Both Saturday home underdogs covered, while Sunday’s lone underdog cover came from the 49ers winning outright on the road.
The contrarian patterns from the regular season have carried into the postseason. The public loaded up on the Eagles as defending champions and the Jaguars as the league’s hottest team. Both lost. The Bears and Panthers, widely dismissed entering Saturday, both covered against inflated expectations.
Monday night brings one final Wild Card game: Texans at Steelers. Houston is favored by 3 points despite playing on the road. Pittsburgh enters with their own lengthy playoff losing streak to snap.
Divisional Round Taking Shape
The NFC bracket is set: Seahawks host the 49ers, Bears host the Rams. The AFC awaits Monday’s result: Denver hosts the Bills, and New England hosts the Texans-Steelers winner.
Wild Card Weekend reminded everyone why playoff football is different. Home teams went 2-3. Underdogs went 3-2 ATS. Two defending conference finalists (Eagles and Jaguars in terms of expectations) were eliminated. And every game except one came down to the final minutes.
The playoff underdog edge continues to hold. Since 2017, Wild Card underdogs have covered at roughly a 64% rate. This weekend added more data to that trend.