The Broncos Are a Home Underdog. They’re Also the Number One Seed.
The Denver Broncos finished the 2025 season 14-3 and earned the AFC’s top seed for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 run. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. On Saturday, they’ll host the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.
And oddsmakers have made them underdogs.
Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at most sportsbooks. If that line holds, the Broncos will become just the third top seed in NFL history to be a home underdog in the Divisional Round since the format was created in 1970.
A Historic Line for Contrarian Bettors
The previous two instances tell an interesting story. In 1971, the Minnesota Vikings were 1-point home underdogs against Dallas. The Cowboys won 20-12. In 2017, the Nick Foles-led Philadelphia Eagles were 2.5-point home underdogs against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles won 15-10 and went on to win Super Bowl LII.
The sample size is small, but the pattern is worth noting. One loss, one Super Bowl champion. The market has been willing to fade top seeds before, and the results haven’t been catastrophic for the home team.
Denver’s situation carries some unique factors that explain the number. The Broncos went 7-9-1 against the spread during the regular season despite their gaudy win total. They frequently played down to their competition, going 3-9 ATS as favorites. The market noticed. Sean Payton’s team won close games, but they rarely covered them.
Why Buffalo Gets the Respect
The Bills present a different profile. Josh Allen entered Wild Card Weekend with a troubling 0-4 record in road playoff games, having been held under 200 passing yards in six of his eight road games this season. Then Buffalo went to Jacksonville and won 27-24, with Allen throwing for 273 yards and accounting for three total touchdowns.
That performance flipped the narrative. The Bills have now won a road playoff game for the first time in Allen’s career. Combined with Denver’s ATS struggles, oddsmakers moved Buffalo into favorite territory despite playing on the road against a team coming off a bye.
The fade the public philosophy suggests watching where the money goes here. If casual bettors pile onto the Bills based on Allen’s Wild Card heroics and Denver’s covering woes, the line could push further. Road favorites in the Divisional Round have historically struggled to cover, and a No. 1 seed at home has structural advantages that point spreads sometimes undervalue.
Denver’s Long Playoff Drought
The Broncos haven’t won a playoff game since the 2015 season, when they beat the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. That’s a nine-year drought for a franchise with three Super Bowl titles. Bo Nix became the fourth quarterback in franchise history to lead Denver to a No. 1 seed, joining John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Craig Morton. The franchise has advanced to the Super Bowl in six of eight previous seasons when earning the top spot.
History suggests betting against No. 1 seeds at home carries risk. But history also suggests the market is slow to adjust to truly elite road teams. Buffalo’s defense ranks among the league’s best, and Allen has developed into a quarterback who can win in any environment.
What the Numbers Say
According to data from Yahoo Sports, oddsmakers ranked the Bills as the third or fifth-best team heading into the playoffs, depending on which power ratings you consulted. Denver wasn’t in the top five of either ranking despite earning the conference’s best record.
The Broncos’ defense is legitimate. They finished with a franchise-record 68 sacks and led the NFL in third-down defense at 30.9%. Their red zone defense allowed touchdowns on just 40% of opponent possessions. Those numbers suggest a team capable of keeping games close regardless of their ATS record.
For contrarian bettors, the question becomes whether the market has overcorrected. Denver covered at poor rates during the regular season, but playoff intensity tends to compress talent gaps. Home underdog data shows consistent value over large samples, and a No. 1 seed at home represents an extreme version of that situation.
Context for the Divisional Round
The Broncos aren’t the only storyline for contrarian bettors this weekend. The Bears (+4.5) are home underdogs against the Rams after staging the third-largest fourth-quarter comeback in NFL playoff history against Green Bay. The 49ers (+7) travel to Seattle for a rematch of their Week 18 loss. The Texans (+2.5) go to New England riding a 10-game winning streak.
Three of the four Divisional Round games feature underdogs that have recent evidence of covering or winning outright. The Bears stormed back from 15 points down. The 49ers upset the Eagles as six-point road dogs. The Texans demolished the Steelers in what was supposed to be a close game.
But Denver’s situation remains the most historically unusual. A No. 1 seed shouldn’t be catching points at home. The fact that they are tells you something about how the market views both teams. Whether that view is accurate is a different question.
The Contrarian Angle
Public money typically flows toward teams that looked impressive in their most recent game. Allen’s Wild Card performance was exactly that. The Bills overcame an early deficit, made clutch plays in the fourth quarter, and advanced on the road. Meanwhile, Denver sat idle, accumulating rust while Buffalo gained momentum.
The psychology of betting underdogs explains why many bettors will back Buffalo here. Recent performance dominates perception. The Bills feel like the better team because they just proved it under pressure. The Broncos feel like an unknown because they haven’t played in two weeks.
But home-field advantage matters in January. Empower Field at Mile High sits at 5,280 feet elevation, creating challenges for visiting teams. The Broncos went 8-1 at home during the regular season. And the bye week gave Denver time to prepare specifically for this matchup.
The result remains unpredictable. Both teams have legitimate paths to victory. But the line itself is the story. A No. 1 seed as a home underdog happens roughly once every 25 years. Contrarian bettors should at least take notice.