Analysis of teams and situations where public perception may have overcorrected, creating potential value for contrarian bettors.
Two Historic Losing Streaks Meet on Monday Night Monday Night Football brings an unusual collision of postseason futility. The Pittsburgh Steelers, on a six-game playoff losing streak dating to January 2017, host the Houston Texans, who are 0-6 in road playoff games in franchise history. One of these streaks ends Monday night at Acrisure Stadium. … Read more
Division Champion at Home, Getting Points Against a Skidding Rival The Chicago Bears enter Wild Card Weekend as NFC North champions, hosting their first playoff game since the infamous “Double Doink” loss in 2018. They finished 11-6, won their division for the first time in seven years, and secured the conference’s second seed. Their opponent? … Read more
The Jaguars Are Home Underdogs Despite an 8-Game Winning Streak The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t lost since early November. They’ve won eight straight games. They’ve covered the spread in all eight of those games. They finished the regular season 12-4-1 against the spread, the best mark in franchise history. And they’re underdogs at home in the … Read more
The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams. The opening line? Panthers … Read more
Three Divisions on the Line Week 18 brings something rare: three games where the winner takes the division and the loser goes home. The NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. For contrarian bettors, the setup offers interesting angles that cut against public perception. The betting market has spoken … Read more
Home Favorite to Home Underdog Something unusual happened this week in the betting market. The San Francisco 49ers opened as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks. By Tuesday, that line had flipped. The 49ers are now 1.5-point underdogs in their own building. The game is Saturday night. Winner takes the NFC West title … Read more
The Buccaneers Are Still Favored Tampa Bay has failed to cover a spread in eight consecutive games. They started the season 6-2. They’re now 7-9. Their collapse has been one of the most thorough in recent NFL history. And on Saturday, when they host the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title, the Buccaneers are … Read more
Tampa Bay started the season 6-2. They were getting serious NFC contender buzz. Baker Mayfield looked like a late-career revelation. The offense was rolling. The four-time NFC South champions appeared ready for another division title run. That was two months ago. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 1-6. More striking: they’re 0-7 against the spread … Read more
The Texans Are Getting Plus Money. Read That Again. Houston enters Saturday’s game at Los Angeles riding a seven-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NFL. The Texans have the league’s best defense in both total yards allowed (272.3 per game) and scoring (16.6 points per game). They’ve held opponents to 21 points … Read more
The Lions Were Super Bowl Favorites. Now They Need a Christmas Miracle. Detroit entered the 2025 season at +1200 to win the Super Bowl. Today, on Christmas, those odds sit at +12000. That’s a tenfold collapse in less than four months. The Lions play the Vikings this afternoon in a game they must win to … Read more