The Patriots Starting QB Is Questionable. Why Hasn’t the Line Budged?
Drake Maye missed the Patriots’ final practice in Foxborough on Friday with a shoulder injury and illness. He’s officially listed as questionable for Super Bowl LX. And the betting market? Barely a shrug.
The line sits at Seahawks -4.5, roughly where it’s been all week. The total has dropped from 46.5 to 45.5 on sharp Under action, but the spread has actually moved toward Seattle, not away from it. If you expected injury panic to hand contrarian bettors a gift, it hasn’t happened.
This tells us something important about how the market views this situation.
What We Actually Know About Maye’s Status
Coach Mike Vrabel has been consistent: he’s not worried. After Friday’s practice, Vrabel told reporters that Maye would have practiced if he weren’t sick. The illness kept him home, but his shoulder responded “favorably” to Thursday’s limited work.
Maye himself has downplayed the issue. “I’m feeling good,” he said after Thursday’s practice. “This is the game you dream of playing in, so I’m looking forward to getting out there and getting a chance to play in the Super Bowl.”
The 23-year-old hasn’t missed a game all season. He appeared to hurt his right throwing shoulder during a third-quarter scramble in the AFC Championship Game against Denver on January 25, but he finished that game and the Patriots won 10-7.
Why Markets Aren’t Overreacting
There are a few possible explanations for the lack of line movement:
First, the timing. There are still eight days until kickoff. If Maye were genuinely in doubt, we’d see more dramatic movement closer to game time when the uncertainty would actually matter.
Second, the market already knew. Maye appeared on the injury report as “limited” with a right shoulder injury on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. This isn’t breaking news so much as confirmation of what was expected.
Third, sharp bettors don’t seem concerned. At South Point in Las Vegas, oddsmaker Andrew Andrews reported early action has been “mostly Seattle, but nothing outrageous.” Sharp play has targeted the Under, not the spread.
When informed money isn’t hammering a supposedly vulnerable underdog, it usually means they don’t believe the vulnerability is real.
Historical Context on QB Injuries
We saw a dramatic example of injury-driven line movement just two weeks ago when Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury forced Denver to start Jarrett Stidham against New England. The line swung 6.5 points from the lookahead number, turning the Broncos from slight favorites into the largest home underdog in conference championship game history.
That was an actual starter change. A “questionable” tag with eight days to heal? That’s noise, not signal.
Backup Joshua Dobbs would start if Maye can’t go, but Vrabel’s comments suggest that scenario remains remote. And contrarian bettors know that injury speculation often creates more value than the actual injury itself.
The Underdog Pattern Continues
With or without full-strength Maye, the historical trends favor the Patriots. Underdogs have covered five consecutive Super Bowls and gone 13-5 ATS since 2007. The public continues to back Seattle, with 70% of spread bets on the Seahawks at DraftKings.
New England is getting plus-money as an underdog for the first time in a Super Bowl since their dynasty began with that 20-17 upset of the Rams in 2002. If the Maye injury news were genuinely concerning, sharp money would be distancing itself from the Patriots. Instead, we’ve seen million-dollar bets land on New England.
The absence of panic is the story here. Markets are efficient at pricing uncertainty, and right now, the uncertainty premium on Maye’s availability is essentially zero.
What to Watch This Week
The Patriots travel to California for Super Bowl week activities. Maye’s participation in practices Tuesday through Thursday will be the real tell. If he’s back to full participation by midweek, expect the current line to hold. If he remains limited or misses additional practices, that’s when we might see movement.
For now, the market has spoken: Maye plays. The public perception that he’s compromised may actually be creating contrarian value on a Patriots team that’s quietly 12-5 ATS this season.
Eight days is a long time. A shoulder contusion and a cold aren’t typically season-enders. And betting markets don’t move on headlines alone – they move on information. Right now, the information says the Patriots’ quarterback will be under center for the biggest game of his life.